Toluca vs Atlas Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Toluca 5-2 Atlas.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Toluca, 29% draw, 25% Atlas — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Toluca at 46% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Toluca vs Atlas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12R. BeltranG
- 2D. BarbosaD
- 4Bruno MendezD
- 6F. PereiraD
- 20J. GallardoD
- 5F. RomeroM
- 11HelinhoM
- 8N. CastroM
- 10J. AnguloM
- 9A. VegaM
- 16F. VinasF
- 18D. ShremG
- 13LuanD
- 3A. BrisenoD
- 25E. del VillarD
- 184S. AcevesM
- 24F. ArceM
- 7V. GuzmanM
- 15P. PerezM
- 26PaulinhoF
- 12C. VargasG
- 3J. SanchezD
- 13G. AguirreD
- 28M. CapassoD
- 16M. ValenzuelaD
- 5J. RodriguezD
- 58A. GonzalezM
- 27V. H. Rios De AlbaM
- 15P. RamirezM
- 10L. EstevesM
- 9F. MonzonF
- 22A. SanchezG
- 4A. MoraD
- 44J. SanchezD
- 17J. LozanoD
- 18E. MontielM
- 192J. SerratoM
- 23S. HernandezM
- 251L. GamboaF
- 203J. MartinF
Form going into Toluca vs Atlas
Toluca
All competitions we cover
- W4-0FC Juarez31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Club Queretaro22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Atlante FC15 August 2026
- W3-1Necaxa3 August 2026
- L1-2Pumas UNAM22 July 2026
Atlas
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Atlante FC6 September 2026
- L1-3Club Queretaro29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Cruz Azul23 August 2026
- W2-1Tigres UANL16 August 2026
- L0-2Monterrey2 August 2026
What these results say
- Toluca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Toluca had three goals or more.
- Atlas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlas conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 19 | +10 | 23 |
| 4 | Atlas | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Toluca vs Atlas
- 15 March 2026Toluca 1–1 AtlasLiga MX
- 1 November 2025Atlas 0–0 TolucaLiga MX
- 13 April 2025Atlas 2–3 TolucaLiga MX
- 28 September 2024Toluca 4–1 AtlasLiga MX
- 7 April 2024Toluca 4–1 AtlasLiga MX
- 26 August 2023Atlas 0–0 TolucaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Toluca and Atlas
Toluca
GoalsAssists
- F. Viñas70
Atlas
GoalsAssists
- Luís Esteves53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Toluca beat Atlas 5–2. The model had made a win for Toluca its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: A. Vega (penalty) 19' for Toluca, J. Angulo 22' for Toluca, F. Vinas 29' for Toluca, F. Monzon 51' for Atlas, Paulinho 53' for Toluca, J. Rodriguez (own goal) 60' for Toluca, Duk 81' for Atlas. On expected goals it finished 2.12–0.94.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.