12 September 2026, 01:00 UTC

Necaxa vs Puebla Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Necaxa 0-1 Puebla.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Necaxa, 29% draw, 27% Puebla — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Necaxa at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Necaxa4%Draw93%Puebla3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Raúl Martínez
45+1'
45+1'
Fernando Monarrez
45+1'
Juan Pablo Vargas
🔁O. Gonzalezout: K. Rosero
46'
🔁M. Zaletaout: E. Rodriguez
46'
46'
🔁F. Monarrezout: O. Villa
46'
🔁O. F. Moreno Villegasout: I. Maestro
49'
Carlos Baltazar
62'
🔁K. Velascoout: M. Tomas
🔁M. Espindolaout: J. P. Torres Patino
68'
🔁L. Faravelliout: D. Leyva
75'
81'
🔁B. Garnicaout: Lucas Camilo
🔁P. Pedrazaout: J. Valencia
86'
89'
🔁C. Baltazarout: J. R. Pachuca Martinez
Luis Jimenez
90+7'
90'
⚽M. Tomasassist: A. Organista

Match stats — Necaxa vs Puebla

56%Possession44%
9Shots12
2On target4
8Corners5
1.02xG0.68

Goals against chances

Necaxa0 from 1.02 xGless than the chances were worth
Puebla1 from 0.68 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Necaxa 3-4-2-1
  • 12L. JimenezG
  • 33R. MartinezD
  • 5NavesD
  • 3A. OliverosD
  • 13O. GonzalezM
  • 16P. PedrazaM
  • 8L. FaravelliM
  • 14M. ZaletaM
  • 21M. EspindolaF
  • 10J. RuizF
  • 9J. CarranzaF
Substitutes
  • 1C. AndradeG
  • 88C. VargasD
  • 4A. PenaD
  • 20F. MendezD
  • 11J. P. Torres PatinoM
  • 17R. CortezM
  • 6D. LeyvaM
  • 7K. RoseroF
  • 90J. ValenciaF
Coach: Martin Varini
Puebla 4-2-3-1
  • 28D. GutierrezG
  • 12I. MorenoD
  • 5F. AlmadaD
  • 4J. VargasD
  • 7F. MonarrezD
  • 24A. OrganistaM
  • 21S. SanabriaM
  • 27B. GarnicaM
  • 26K. VelascoM
  • 22C. BaltazarM
  • 8O. F. Moreno VillegasF
Substitutes
  • 33J. RodriguezG
  • 15O. VillaD
  • 20J. R. Pachuca MartinezD
  • 2A. LeyvaD
  • 10M. TomasM
  • 3A. HerreraM
  • 16A. RamirezM
  • 34Lucas CamiloM
  • 195A. de la RosaD
Coach: Gerardo Espinoza

Form going into Necaxa vs Puebla

Necaxa

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Tigres UANL6 September 2026
  • L1-3Cruz Azul29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Pumas UNAM24 August 2026
  • L1-2Leon18 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Toluca3 August 2026

Puebla

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Club America30 August 2026
  • W3-2Santos Laguna23 August 2026
  • W3-2away to CF Pachuca18 August 2026
  • D1-1Guadalajara Chivas1 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Cruz Azul22 July 2026

What these results say

  • Necaxa did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Necaxa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Necaxa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Puebla conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Puebla scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Puebla.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Necaxa142481627-1110
14Puebla144461621-516

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Necaxa vs Puebla

  • 14 March 2026Puebla 0–0 NecaxaLiga MX
  • 20 September 2025Necaxa 1–0 PueblaLiga MX
  • 19 April 2025Puebla 0–1 NecaxaLiga MX
  • 13 July 2024Necaxa 4–1 PueblaLiga MX
  • 20 January 2024Puebla 1–2 NecaxaLiga MX
  • 8 October 2023Necaxa 1–2 PueblaLiga MX

The full Necaxa vs Puebla record →

Leading scorers: Necaxa and Puebla

Necaxa

GoalsAssists

  • J. Carranza72

Puebla

No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Puebla won 1–0 at Necaxa. The model had leaned towards a win for Necaxa at 44% and given a win for Puebla 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: M. Tomas 90' for Puebla. Sent off: Luis Jimenez (Necaxa) 90+7'. On expected goals it finished 1.02–0.68.

How the call on Necaxa v Puebla has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 44% / 29% / 27%: the biggest move is Necaxa's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Necaxa win44%▲ +2
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Puebla win27%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.