Necaxa
vs
Puebla
Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Necaxa 0-1 Puebla.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Necaxa, 31% draw, 33% Puebla — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Necaxa 1.17, Puebla 1.06.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Necaxa vs Puebla
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Necaxa at 36% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Necaxa vs Puebla
Necaxa
- D1-1away to Tigres UANL6 September 2026
- L1-3Cruz Azul29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Pumas UNAM24 August 2026
- L1-2Leon18 August 2026
Puebla
- L0-2away to Club America30 August 2026
- W3-2Santos Laguna23 August 2026
- W3-2away to CF Pachuca18 August 2026
- D1-1Guadalajara Chivas1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Necaxa | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 8 |
| 8 | Puebla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Necaxa vs Puebla
- 14 March 2026Puebla 0–0 NecaxaLiga MX
- 20 September 2025Necaxa 1–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 19 April 2025Puebla 0–1 NecaxaLiga MX
- 13 July 2024Necaxa 4–1 PueblaLiga MX
- 20 January 2024Puebla 1–2 NecaxaLiga MX
- 8 October 2023Necaxa 1–2 PueblaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Necaxa and Puebla
Necaxa
- J. Carranza4 goals1 assists
Puebla
- E. Mustre3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Necaxa carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.65 for Puebla. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for Necaxa and 1.06 for Puebla. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Necaxa rate 0.69 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Puebla rate 0.68 and 1.04.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Puebla, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Necaxa a 0% chance of the title and Puebla 3.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Necaxa the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Necaxa against 1.06 for Puebla. Necaxa's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.04 for Puebla.