Atlante FC
vs
CF Pachuca
Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Atlante FC 0-3 CF Pachuca.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Atlante FC, 30% draw, 37% CF Pachuca — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Atlante FC 1.14, CF Pachuca 1.31.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Atlante FC vs CF Pachuca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CF Pachuca at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Atlante FC vs CF Pachuca
Atlante FC
- D1-1away to Atlas6 September 2026
- D1-1Leon29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Tigres UANL22 August 2026
- D0-0Toluca15 August 2026
CF Pachuca
- W2-0away to FC Juarez5 September 2026
- D1-1Guadalajara Chivas29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico San Luis23 August 2026
- L2-3Puebla18 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Atlante FC | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
| 10 | CF Pachuca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atlante FC vs CF Pachuca
- 23 December 2025CF Pachuca 0–4 Atlante FCFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Atlante FC and CF Pachuca
Atlante FC
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
CF Pachuca
- S. Rondón8 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Atlante FC carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.66 for CF Pachuca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for Atlante FC and 1.31 for CF Pachuca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atlante FC rate 0.61 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CF Pachuca rate 0.78 and 1.15.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Atlante FC a 0% chance of the title and CF Pachuca 1.1%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives CF Pachuca the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Atlante FC against 1.31 for CF Pachuca. Atlante FC's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.15 for CF Pachuca.