12 September 2026, 03:00 UTC

Atlante FC vs CF Pachuca Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Atlante FC 0-3 CF Pachuca.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Atlante FC, 30% draw, 30% CF Pachuca — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Atlante FC at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atlante FC0%Draw1%CF Pachuca99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
Christian Rivera
Eduardo Tercero
12'
13'
⚽S. Rondon
15'
Kenedy
20'
⚽Kenedy
Martín Fernández
26'
37'
🔁Kenedyout: R. Pizarro
38'
⚽O. Idrissiassist: R. Pizarro
45'
Sergio Rodríguez
🔁C. Alfaroout: J. N. Carrera
46'
🔁E. Pizzutoout: L. Puente
46'
🔁M. Fernandezout: D. Gonzalez
46'
🔁J. Moxicaout: J. Charcopa
65'
66'
🔁S. Rondonout: A. Alcaraz
66'
🔁S. Rodriguezout: N. Vallejo
77'
🔁O. Idrissiout: M. Isais
77'
🔁A. Bautistaout: U. Martinez
🔁E. Terceroout: A. Escobar
78'
82'
Carlos Sánchez

Match stats — Atlante FC vs CF Pachuca

56%Possession44%
32Shots21
5On target8
5Corners5
1.3xG1.16

Goals against chances

Atlante FC0 from 1.30 xGless than the chances were worth
CF Pachuca3 from 1.16 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atlante FC 5-3-2
  • 1O. JimenezG
  • 29W. PortalesD
  • 14C. AlfaroD
  • 4E. TerceroD
  • 44A. QuirosD
  • 19L. CalzadillaD
  • 30Martin SarrafioreM
  • 8E. PizzutoM
  • 25M. FernandezM
  • 11J. MoxicaF
  • 7Jhojan JulioF
Substitutes
  • 22R. BarraganG
  • 3L. SanchezD
  • 6J. N. CarreraD
  • 37W. ClarD
  • 27A. EscobarD
  • 10O. VazquezM
  • 15J. CharcopaF
  • 9L. PuenteF
  • 20G. AdameM
Coach: Ernesto Herrera Aguirre Miguel
CF Pachuca 4-2-3-1
  • 25C. MorenoG
  • 14C. SanchezD
  • 4Eduardo BauermannD
  • 2S. D. BarretoD
  • 15F. VenegasD
  • 30S. RodriguezM
  • 16C. RiveraM
  • 29KenedyM
  • 26A. BautistaM
  • 11O. IdrissiM
  • 23S. RondonF
Substitutes
  • 31J. EulogioG
  • 6M. IsaisD
  • 206T. A. ContrerasM
  • 221U. MartinezM
  • 187G. AlvarezF
  • 32P. BudibD
  • 7R. PizarroM
  • 12S. SantosM
  • 9A. AlcarazM
Coach: Benjamin Mora

Form going into Atlante FC vs CF Pachuca

Atlante FC

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Atlas6 September 2026
  • D1-1Leon29 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Tigres UANL22 August 2026
  • D0-0Toluca15 August 2026
  • W3-2away to Cruz Azul2 August 2026

CF Pachuca

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to FC Juarez5 September 2026
  • D1-1Guadalajara Chivas29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Atletico San Luis23 August 2026
  • L2-3Puebla18 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Leon2 August 2026

What these results say

  • Atlante FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Atlante FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Atlante FC had two goals or fewer.
  • CF Pachuca failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • CF Pachuca scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • CF Pachuca conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Atlante FC143561420-614
13CF Pachuca144462219+316

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atlante FC vs CF Pachuca

  • 23 December 2025CF Pachuca 0–4 Atlante FCFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Atlante FC and CF Pachuca

Atlante FC

No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

CF Pachuca

GoalsAssists

  • S. Rondón131

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

CF Pachuca won 3–0 at Atlante FC. The model had leaned towards a win for Atlante FC at 40% and given a win for CF Pachuca 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: S. Rondon 13' for CF Pachuca, Kenedy 20' for CF Pachuca, O. Idrissi 38' for CF Pachuca. On expected goals it finished 1.30–1.16.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.