VfL Bochum
vs
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: VfL Bochum 1-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% VfL Bochum, 29% draw, 31% SpVgg Greuther Fürth — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: VfL Bochum 1.53, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.18.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Has the model earned this number?
It puts VfL Bochum at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
VfL Bochum
- W2-1away to Dynamo Dresden5 September 2026
- L0-1VfL Osnabrück28 August 2026
- W1-0away to Eintracht Braunschweig14 August 2026
- L0-1Hertha BSC7 August 2026
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- L0-11. FC Heidenheim6 September 2026
- W4-3away to Energie Cottbus29 August 2026
- L2-41. FC Nürnberg15 August 2026
- D1-1away to FC St. Pauli9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | VfL Bochum | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- 23 August 2026SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–2 VfL BochumDFB Pokal
- 26 April 2026VfL Bochum 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
- 29 November 2025SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0–3 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
- 5 March 2022Vfl Bochum 2–1 SpVgg Greuther FurthBundesliga
- 16 October 2021SpVgg Greuther Furth 0–1 Vfl BochumBundesliga
- 6 March 2021SpVgg Greuther Furth 1–2 Vfl Bochum2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth
VfL Bochum
- K. Miyoshi2 goals1 assists
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- F. Klaus5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
VfL Bochum carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.52 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for VfL Bochum and 1.18 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VfL Bochum rate 0.68 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SpVgg Greuther Fürth rate 0.71 and 1.38.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VfL Bochum the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for VfL Bochum against 1.18 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. VfL Bochum's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.38 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth.