VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: VfL Bochum 1-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% VfL Bochum, 29% draw, 30% SpVgg Greuther Fürth — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts VfL Bochum at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. HornG
- 2S. KlaiberD
- 15M. SteinwenderD
- 5K. MetsD
- 32M. WittekD
- 34T. MeyerM
- 24M. PannewigM
- 7C. RasmussenM
- 23K. MiyoshiM
- 17G. HoltmannM
- 33P. HofmannF
- 38H. RollekeG
- 4Y. KarademirD
- 31L. SawasD
- 28C. PatinoM
- 10B. TazM
- 39L. IsbruchM
- 37A. CrimaldiF
- 19D. HanslikF
- 14J. SteuckersF
- 1F. HellsternG
- 2L. ReichD
- 22J. HeuerD
- 29K. KeresztesD
- 27L. ItterD
- 37F. AdemiM
- 13P. WillM
- 6S. BanseM
- 10O. PohlmannM
- 30F. KlausF
- 9JordanF
- 43S. PrufrockG
- 34H. BlankD
- 23J. DehmD
- 4E. BenkaraD
- 28D. ArifiM
- 11A. KellerM
- 45O. BalliuM
- 7D. SrbenyF
- 42O. SillahF
Form going into VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
VfL Bochum
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Dynamo Dresden5 September 2026
- L0-1VfL Osnabrück28 August 2026
- W1-0away to Eintracht Braunschweig14 August 2026
- L0-1Hertha BSC7 August 2026
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
All competitions we cover
- L0-11. FC Heidenheim6 September 2026
- W4-3away to Energie Cottbus29 August 2026
- L2-41. FC Nürnberg15 August 2026
- D1-1away to FC St. Pauli9 August 2026
What these results say
- VfL Bochum conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for VfL Bochum had two goals or fewer.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | VfL Bochum | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- 23 August 2026SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–2 VfL BochumDFB Pokal
- 26 April 2026VfL Bochum 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
- 29 November 2025SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0–3 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
- 5 March 2022VfL Bochum 2–1 SpVgg Greuther FürthBundesliga
- 16 October 2021SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0–1 VfL BochumBundesliga
- 6 March 2021SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–2 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth
VfL Bochum
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
GoalsAssists
- F. Klaus71
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
VfL Bochum and SpVgg Greuther Fürth drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for VfL Bochum at 41% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: P. Hofmann 16' for VfL Bochum, O. Sillah 71' for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Sent off: Mats Pannewig (VfL Bochum) 82'. On expected goals it finished 1.53–1.64.