Club Tijuana
vs
Club Queretaro
Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Club Tijuana 0-1 Club Queretaro.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Club Tijuana, 29% draw, 31% Club Queretaro — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Club Tijuana 1.52, Club Queretaro 1.17.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Club Tijuana vs Club Queretaro
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club Tijuana at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Club Tijuana vs Club Queretaro
Club Tijuana
- W2-0Pumas UNAM29 August 2026
- L2-5away to Guadalajara Chivas23 August 2026
- W2-1Cruz Azul17 August 2026
- D0-0away to Atletico San Luis1 August 2026
Club Queretaro
- W3-1away to Atlas29 August 2026
- L1-2Toluca22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Pumas UNAM16 August 2026
- W3-2Tigres UANL1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Club Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 | Club Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Tijuana vs Club Queretaro
- 15 January 2026Club Queretaro 1–2 Club TijuanaLiga MX
- 12 July 2025Club Tijuana 1–0 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 25 January 2025Club Tijuana 2–1 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 6 July 2024Club Queretaro 1–2 Club TijuanaLiga MX
- 10 February 2024Club Tijuana 1–1 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 22 October 2023Club Queretaro 1–0 Club TijuanaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Club Tijuana and Club Queretaro
Club Tijuana
- G. Mora4 goals1 assists
Club Queretaro
- S. Homenchenko4 goals2 assists
- A. Ávila3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Club Tijuana carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.68 for Club Queretaro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Club Tijuana and 1.17 for Club Queretaro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Club Tijuana rate 0.77 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club Queretaro rate 0.86 and 1.21.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Club Queretaro, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Club Tijuana a 6.1% chance of the title and Club Queretaro 11.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club Tijuana the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Club Tijuana against 1.17 for Club Queretaro. Club Tijuana's attack/defence rating is 0.77/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.21 for Club Queretaro.