12 September 2026, 03:10 UTC

Club Tijuana vs Club Queretaro Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Caliente, Tijuana
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Club Tijuana 0-1 Club Queretaro.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Club Tijuana, 28% draw, 28% Club Queretaro — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Club Tijuana at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Club Tijuana0%Draw5%Club Queretaro95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
Daniel Parra
30'
⚽M. Coronelassist: S. Homenchenko
🔁Y. Padillaout: D. Abreu
56'
62'
🔁Paulo Victorout: C. Villanueva
🔁G. Moraout: A. Perez
67'
69'
Bayron Duarte
75'
🔁B. Duarteout: I. Benito
🔁F. Gonzalezout: A. Mejia
82'
85'
🔁M. Coronelout: A. Alcala
86'
🔁E. Gimenezout: E. Duenas
86'
🔁C. Garciaout: B. Parra
88'
Ali Ávila
•Jackson Porozo
90+8'
90+8'
Diego Reyes
90+6'
Santiago Homenchenko

Match stats — Club Tijuana vs Club Queretaro

63%Possession37%
24Shots8
4On target4
13Corners4
2.03xG0.81

Goals against chances

Club Tijuana0 from 2.03 xGless than the chances were worth
Club Queretaro1 from 0.81 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Club Tijuana 4-1-4-1
  • 2A. RodriguezG
  • 17R. ArcigaD
  • 12J. PorozoD
  • 6A. GomezD
  • 16A. VegaD
  • 8I. TonaM
  • 11F. GonzalezM
  • 31Y. PadillaM
  • 10G. MoraM
  • 7A. PreciadoM
  • 9M. El GhezouaniF
Substitutes
  • 29J. HernandezG
  • 4U. BilbaoD
  • 18A. MejiaF
  • 33P. N. Ortiz OrozcoD
  • 20A. ZapataM
  • 26A. PerezM
  • 202J. GonzalezF
  • 197J. OrdunoM
  • 19D. AbreuF
Coach: Sebastian Abreu
Club Queretaro 4-2-3-1
  • 25G. AllisonG
  • 24B. DuarteD
  • 13D. ReyesD
  • 2L. AbasciaD
  • 27D. ParraD
  • 4C. GarciaM
  • 5S. HomenchenkoM
  • 16E. GimenezM
  • 11M. CoronelM
  • 12Paulo VictorM
  • 9A. AvilaF
Substitutes
  • 1J. HernandezG
  • 15C. Villanueva
  • 29W. MadridM
  • 18E. DuenasM
  • 20A. AlcalaM
  • 8B. ParraM
  • 30J. MartinezM
  • 17D. MunozM
  • 26E. PerezF
Coach: Eduardo Gonzalez Herrera Esteban

Form going into Club Tijuana vs Club Queretaro

Club Tijuana

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Pumas UNAM29 August 2026
  • L2-5away to Guadalajara Chivas22 August 2026
  • W2-1Cruz Azul17 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Atletico San Luis1 August 2026
  • W1-0Leon25 July 2026

Club Queretaro

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1away to Atlas29 August 2026
  • L1-2Toluca22 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Pumas UNAM16 August 2026
  • W3-2Tigres UANL1 August 2026
  • W2-1away to CF Pachuca27 July 2026

What these results say

  • Club Tijuana scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Club Queretaro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Club Queretaro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Club Queretaro had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Club Tijuana145632218+421
9Club Queretaro136251718-120

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Club Tijuana vs Club Queretaro

  • 15 January 2026Club Queretaro 1–2 Club TijuanaLiga MX
  • 12 July 2025Club Tijuana 1–0 Club QueretaroLiga MX
  • 25 January 2025Club Tijuana 2–1 Club QueretaroLiga MX
  • 6 July 2024Club Queretaro 1–2 Club TijuanaLiga MX
  • 10 February 2024Club Tijuana 1–1 Club QueretaroLiga MX
  • 22 October 2023Club Queretaro 1–0 Club TijuanaLiga MX

The full Club Tijuana vs Club Queretaro record →

Leading scorers: Club Tijuana and Club Queretaro

Club Tijuana

GoalsAssists

  • G. Mora51

Club Queretaro

GoalsAssists

  • S. Homenchenko52
  • A. Ávila50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Club Queretaro won 1–0 at Club Tijuana. The model had leaned towards a win for Club Tijuana at 44% and given a win for Club Queretaro 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: M. Coronel 30' for Club Queretaro. On expected goals it finished 2.03–0.81.

How the call on Club Tijuana v Club Queretaro has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 46% / 27% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 28% / 28%: the biggest move is Club Tijuana's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Club Tijuana win44%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Club Queretaro win28%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.