Fakel vs Baltika Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Fakel 2-2 Baltika.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Fakel, 32% draw, 36% Baltika — fair odds of 3.13, 3.13 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Russian Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Baltika at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fakel vs Baltika
Line-ups
- 1D. FrolkinG
- 20I. YurganovD
- 40ClaytonD
- 53M. BardachevD
- 5A. GabaraevM
- 52R. NetfullinM
- 23V. YakimovM
- 17A. KovalevM
- 7M. TurishchevF
- 90A. KoksharovF
- 11A. SutorminF
- 8A. BagamaevM
- 25A. BelyaevF
- 35V. DorovskikhG
- 22H. El MahasniD
- 99N. GiorgobianiM
- 9A. Gnapi DableF
- 97B. MagomedovM
- 19B. PusiF
- 55D. TodorovićD
- 1E. LatyshonokG
- 22M. BeveevD
- 2S. VaratynovD
- 24L. MouyokoloD
- 21E. AndersonD
- 4N. GassamaD
- 42V. PospelovM
- 8A. MendelM
- 5A. MouridM
- 73M. PetrovM
- 91B. GilF
- 19M. ShnaptsevD
- 7K. ShiltsovM
- 68M. RyadnoD
- 10I. PetrovM
- 9C. OfforF
- 44E. LyubakovG
- 81I. KukushkinG
- 3I. KirschD
- 69E. GolenkovF
Form going into Fakel vs Baltika
Fakel
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to FC Rostov5 September 2026
- L0-1Zenit29 August 2026
- D0-0FC Orenburg22 August 2026
- L0-1away to CSKA Moscow15 August 2026
- D0-0Akhmat10 August 2026
Baltika
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Lokomotiv6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Rodina Moskva30 August 2026
- D1-1Rubin24 August 2026
- L1-2Spartak Moscow16 August 2026
- W2-0away to Krylia Sovetov8 August 2026
What these results say
- Fakel did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Fakel failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fakel had two goals or fewer.
- Baltika scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Fakel | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 6 |
| 9 | Baltika | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fakel vs Baltika
- 12 February 2026Baltika 1–0 FakelFriendlies Clubs
- 31 January 2024Baltika 1–2 FakelFriendlies Clubs
- 2 December 2023Fakel Voronezh 0–0 BaltikaPremier League
- 6 August 2023Baltika 2–1 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
- 21 May 2022Baltika 0–1 Fakel VoronezhFirst League
Leading scorers: Fakel and Baltika
Fakel
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Baltika
GoalsAssists
- B. Gil41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fakel and Baltika drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Baltika at 36% and given a draw 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ravil Netfullin 13' for Fakel, Butta Magomedov 51' for Fakel, Egor Golenkov 74' for Baltika, Brayan Gil (penalty) 90+5' for Baltika.
How the call on Fakel v Baltika has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 35% / 32% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 32% / 32% / 36%: the biggest move is Fakel's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Fakel win32%▼ −3
- Draw32%=
- Baltika win36%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.