Fakel
vs
Baltika
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Fakel 2-2 Baltika.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Fakel, 29% draw, 33% Baltika — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fakel 1.39, Baltika 1.22.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Fakel vs Baltika
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fakel at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fakel vs Baltika
Fakel
- L1-3away to FC Rostov5 September 2026
- L0-1Zenit29 August 2026
- D0-0FC Orenburg22 August 2026
- L0-1away to CSKA Moscow15 August 2026
Baltika
- L0-1Lokomotiv6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Rodina Moskva30 August 2026
- D1-1Rubin24 August 2026
- L1-2Spartak Moscow16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Fakel | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 |
| 7 | Baltika | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fakel vs Baltika
- 12 February 2026Baltika 1–0 FakelFriendlies Clubs
- 31 January 2024Baltika 1–2 FakelFriendlies Clubs
- 2 December 2023Fakel Voronezh 0–0 BaltikaPremier League
- 6 August 2023Baltika 2–1 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
- 21 May 2022Baltika 0–1 Fakel VoronezhFirst League
- 10 July 2021Fakel Voronezh 3–3 BaltikaFirst League
Leading scorers: Fakel and Baltika
Fakel
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Baltika
- B. Gil3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fakel carry a model rating of 6.09 against 6.16 for Baltika. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.39 goals for Fakel and 1.22 for Baltika. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fakel rate 0.40 in attack and 1.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Baltika rate 0.54 and 2.14.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Baltika, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fakel a 0% chance of the title and Baltika 1.8%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fakel the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Fakel against 1.22 for Baltika. Fakel's attack/defence rating is 0.4/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/2.14 for Baltika.