10 October 2026, 03:00 UTC

Tigres UANL vs Toluca Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Universitario, San Nicolas de los Garza
Referee: Daniel Quintero Huitrón, Mexico
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Tigres UANL 3-2 Toluca.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Tigres UANL, 28% draw, 35% Toluca — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Tigres UANL at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Tigres UANL97%Draw3%Toluca0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Juan Brunetta
6'
33'
Alexis Vega
⚽Guillermo Martinezassist: Emiliano Gómez
37'
42'
⚽João Paulo Dias Fernandesassist: Brian Garcia
43'
Brian Garcia
45+4'
Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich
45'
🔁Érick Gutiérrezout: Federico Viñas
54'
⚽Federico Viñasassist: Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castro
⚽Juan Brunettaassist: Fernando Gorriarán
60'
🔁Emiliano Gómezout: Diego Sánchez
69'
🔁Alan Francoout: Vladimir Loroña
69'
70'
🔁Alexis Vegaout: Jesús Angulo
71'
🔁Brian Garcia out: Santiago Simon
71'
🔁Hélio Júnio Nunes de Castroout: Jorge Diaz
🔁Guillermo Martinezout: Rodrigo Aguirre
77'
🔁Diego Lainezout: Jonathan Herrera
77'
🔁Juan Brunettaout: Jesús Garza
89'
90'
🔁Nicolás Castroout: Pavel Pérez
Vladimir Loroña
90'
90+3'
Franco Romero
90+3'
Andres Pereira

Match stats — Tigres UANL vs Toluca

30%Possession70%
20Shots17
13On target8
5Corners6
1.81xG1.3

Goals against chances

Tigres UANL3 from 1.81 xGmore than the chances were worth
Toluca2 from 1.30 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. GuzmánG
  • 15A. FrancoD
  • 28JoaquimD
  • 33R. GuerreroD
  • 19M. LaínezD
  • 8F. GorriaránM
  • 5C. AraújoM
  • 16D. LainezM
  • 11J. BrunettaM
  • 9E. GómezM
  • 22G. MartínezF
Substitutes
  • 25F. RodríguezG
  • 30D. SánchezF
  • 6J. VigónM
  • 184I. AcevesD
  • 17R. AguirreF
  • 14J. GarzaD
  • 77O. HerreraF
  • 32V. LoroñaD
  • 21R. MonrealF
Coach: M. Vucetich
Toluca 4-2-3-1
  • 22L. GarcíaG
  • 17B. GarcíaD
  • 4B. MéndezD
  • 6F. PereiraD
  • 20J. GallardoD
  • 5F. RomeroM
  • 35É. GutiérrezM
  • 11HelinhoM
  • 8N. CastroM
  • 9A. VegaM
  • 26PaulinhoF
Substitutes
  • 24F. ArceM
  • 2D. BarbosaD
  • 29J. DíazM
  • 13LuanD
  • 1H. GonzálezG
  • 25E. LópezD
  • 15P. PérezM
  • 19S. SimónM
  • 16F. ViñasF
Coach: A. Mohamed

Form going into Tigres UANL vs Toluca

Tigres UANL

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0Puebla27 September 2026
  • L0-2away to FC Juarez19 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Monterrey13 September 2026
  • D1-1Necaxa6 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Santos Laguna30 August 2026

Toluca

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3away to Cruz Azul26 September 2026
  • L2-3Santos Laguna21 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Puebla16 September 2026
  • W5-2Atlas12 September 2026
  • W4-0FC Juarez31 August 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for Tigres UANL had two goals or fewer.
  • Tigres UANL failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Toluca scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Toluca had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Tigres UANL163671725-815
4Toluca167633521+1427

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Tigres UANL vs Toluca

  • 31 May 2026Toluca 1–1 Tigres UANLCONCACAF Champions League
  • 18 January 2026Tigres UANL 0–0 TolucaLiga MX
  • 15 December 2025Toluca 2–1 Tigres UANLLiga MX
  • 12 December 2025Tigres UANL 1–0 TolucaLiga MX
  • 27 July 2025Toluca 3–4 Tigres UANLLiga MX

The full Tigres UANL vs Toluca record →

Leading scorers: Tigres UANL and Toluca

Tigres UANL

GoalsAssists

  • J. Brunetta94

Toluca

GoalsAssists

  • F. Viñas81
  • Paulinho50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Tigres UANL beat Toluca 3–2. The model had made a win for Tigres UANL its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Juan Brunetta 6' for Tigres UANL, Guillermo Martinez 37' for Tigres UANL, João Paulo Dias Fernandes 42' for Toluca, Federico Viñas 54' for Toluca, Juan Brunetta 60' for Tigres UANL. Sent off: Antonio Ricardo Mohamed Matijevich (Toluca) 45+4'. On expected goals it finished 1.81–1.30.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Tigres UANL a 27.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 14.5% after a win, 29.1% after a draw, 39.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.5%, 13.2 points lower than before the match.

For Toluca the question was the chance to finish top of the Apertura, 25.3% going in: 36.6% after a win, 22.3% after a draw, 14.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.6%, 10.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.