Tigres UANL
vs
Toluca
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Tigres UANL 1–0 Toluca
The model makes it 36% Tigres UANL, 29% draw, 35% Toluca — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Tigres UANL 1.35, Toluca 1.35.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Tigres UANL and Toluca are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Tigres UANL vs Toluca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tigres UANL at 36% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Tigres UANL vs Toluca
Tigres UANL
- L0-2away to FC Juarez19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Monterrey13 September 2026
- D1-1Necaxa6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Santos Laguna30 August 2026
- W2-0Atlante FC22 August 2026
Toluca
- L2-3Santos Laguna21 September 2026
- W1-0away to Puebla16 September 2026
- W5-2Atlas12 September 2026
- W4-0FC Juarez31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Club Queretaro22 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Tigres UANL had two goals or fewer.
- Tigres UANL failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Toluca scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Toluca won 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Toluca had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Tigres UANL | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 |
| 1 | Toluca | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Tigres UANL vs Toluca
- 31 May 2026Toluca 1–1 Tigres UANLCONCACAF Champions League
- 18 January 2026Tigres UANL 0–0 TolucaLiga MX
- 15 December 2025Toluca 2–1 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 12 December 2025Tigres UANL 1–0 TolucaLiga MX
- 27 July 2025Toluca 3–4 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 18 May 2025Toluca 3–0 Tigres UANLLiga MX
Leading scorers: Tigres UANL and Toluca
Tigres UANL
- R. Aguirre3 goals1 assists
Toluca
- F. Viñas4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Tigres UANL carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.79 for Toluca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Tigres UANL and 1.35 for Toluca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tigres UANL rate 0.73 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Toluca rate 0.94 and 1.07.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Toluca, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Tigres UANL a 0% chance of the title and Toluca 21.8%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tigres UANL the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Tigres UANL against 1.35 for Toluca. Tigres UANL's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.07 for Toluca.