10 October 2026, 23:00 UTC

FC Juarez vs Club Tijuana Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez, Ciudad Juarez
Referee: Jesus Rafael Lopez Valle, Mexico
Full time1 – 1

Final score: FC Juarez 1-1 Club Tijuana.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% FC Juarez, 26% draw, 43% Club Tijuana — fair odds of 3.23, 3.85 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Club Tijuana at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Juarez4%Draw91%Club Tijuana5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
•Adonis Preciado
31'
⚽Mourad El Ghezouani (pen)
Monchu
45+2'
🔁Monchuout: Madson de Souza Silva
45'
Leonardo Silva
56'
🔁Ricardo Oliveiraout: Eder Lopez
58'
🔁Jesus Murilloout: Luca Dupuy
59'
63'
🔁Yael Padillaout: Angel Zapata
Denzell Garcia
65'
65'
Angel Zapata
Gilberto Sepulveda
67'
69'
🔁Mourad El Ghezouaniout: Diego Fernando Abreu Firenze
69'
🔁Ramiro Árcigaout: Pablo Ortíz
71'
Pablo Ortíz
Francisco Nevarez
72'
72'
Ivan Tona
🔁Francisco Nevarezout: Jan Carlo Carmona Nunez
75'
🔁Leonardo Silvaout: Rodrigo Dourado
75'
80'
Jackson Porozo
⚽Rodrigo Douradoassist: Daniel Piña
84'
86'
🔁Jesús Vegaout: Francisco González

Match stats — FC Juarez vs Club Tijuana

58%Possession42%
9Shots13
6On target4
9Corners6
1.39xG1.25

Goals against chances

FC Juarez1 from 1.39 xGabout what the chances were worth
Club Tijuana1 from 1.25 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Juarez 5-3-2
  • 1S. JuradoG
  • 33F. NevárezD
  • 3J. MurilloD
  • 2G. SepúlvedaD
  • 26D. PiñaD
  • 5D. GarcíaD
  • 6MonchuM
  • 183L. SilvaM
  • 21RicardinhoM
  • 11J. RodríguezF
  • 19Ó. EstupiñánF
Substitutes
  • 20J. AquinoM
  • 201J. CarmonaM
  • 8Guilherme CastilhoM
  • 13Rodrigo DouradoM
  • 24B. DíazG
  • 7R. FulgencioM
  • 14E. LópezD
  • 17L. Martínez DupuyF
  • 4A. MayorgaD
Coach: T. Campos
Club Tijuana 4-1-4-1
  • 2A. RodríguezG
  • 3R. FernándezD
  • 12J. PorozoD
  • 6A. GómezD
  • 16J. VegaD
  • 8I. TonaM
  • 17R. ÁrcigaM
  • 31Y. PadillaM
  • 15I. RiveroM
  • 7Adonis PreciadoM
  • 9MouradF
Substitutes
  • 20Á. ZapataM
  • 26A. PerezM
  • 33P. OrtízD
  • 188A. MagallonD
  • 29S. HernándezG
  • 11F. GonzálezF
  • 202J. GonzálezF
  • 34F. BoyaM
  • 13Elias ManoelF
Coach: S. Abreu

Form going into FC Juarez vs Club Tijuana

FC Juarez

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Leon28 September 2026
  • W2-0Tigres UANL19 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Santos Laguna14 September 2026
  • L0-2CF Pachuca5 September 2026
  • L0-4away to Toluca31 August 2026

Club Tijuana

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3Atlas26 September 2026
  • D2-2away to CF Pachuca21 September 2026
  • L0-1Club Queretaro12 September 2026
  • W2-0Pumas UNAM29 August 2026
  • L2-5away to Guadalajara Chivas22 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC Juarez failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Juarez conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Club Tijuana failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Club Tijuana scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Club Tijuana conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18FC Juarez1632111334-2111
9Club Tijuana165742522+322

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Juarez vs Club Tijuana

  • 11 April 2026FC Juarez 1–2 Club TijuanaLiga MX
  • 21 November 2025Club Tijuana 3–1 FC JuarezLiga MX
  • 26 July 2025Club Tijuana 1–1 FC JuarezLiga MX
  • 15 February 2025Club Tijuana 1–2 FC JuarezLiga MX
  • 7 November 2024FC Juarez 1–1 Club TijuanaLiga MX

The full FC Juarez vs Club Tijuana record →

Leading scorers: FC Juarez and Club Tijuana

FC Juarez

GoalsAssists

  • Ó. Estupiñán80

Club Tijuana

No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 25 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Juarez and Club Tijuana drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Club Tijuana at 43% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Mourad El Ghezouani (penalty) 31' for Club Tijuana, Rodrigo Dourado 84' for FC Juarez. On expected goals it finished 1.39–1.25.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Club Tijuana a 21.5% chance to finish in the top four: 30.2% after a win, 15.2% after a draw, 10.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 15.2%, 6.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Juarez v Club Tijuana has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 32% / 28% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 31% / 26% / 43%: the biggest move is Club Tijuana's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. FC Juarez win31%▼ −1
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Club Tijuana win43%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.