FC Juarez
vs
Club Tijuana
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: FC Juarez 1–2 Club Tijuana
The model makes it 32% FC Juarez, 28% draw, 40% Club Tijuana — fair odds of 3.13, 3.57 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: FC Juarez 1.43, Club Tijuana 1.75.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Juarez vs Club Tijuana
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club Tijuana at 40% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Juarez vs Club Tijuana
FC Juarez
- W2-0Tigres UANL19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Santos Laguna14 September 2026
- L0-2CF Pachuca5 September 2026
- L0-4away to Toluca31 August 2026
- L1-2Club America22 August 2026
Club Tijuana
- L2-3Atlas26 September 2026
- D2-2away to CF Pachuca21 September 2026
- L0-1Club Queretaro12 September 2026
- W2-0Pumas UNAM29 August 2026
- L2-5away to Guadalajara Chivas22 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Juarez failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Juarez conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Tijuana failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Tijuana scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Tijuana conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | FC Juarez | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 3 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: FC Juarez and Club Tijuana
FC Juarez
- Ó. Estupiñán5 goals
Club Tijuana
- G. Mora5 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Juarez carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.61 for Club Tijuana. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for FC Juarez and 1.75 for Club Tijuana. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Juarez rate 0.66 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club Tijuana rate 0.77 and 1.25.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Juarez a 0% chance of the title and Club Tijuana 1.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club Tijuana the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for FC Juarez against 1.75 for Club Tijuana. FC Juarez's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.25 for Club Tijuana.