Botev Plovdiv
vs
Slavia Sofia
First League prediction
Our model says: Botev Plovdiv 1–0 Slavia Sofia
The model makes it 42% Botev Plovdiv, 30% draw, 28% Slavia Sofia — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Botev Plovdiv 1.48, Slavia Sofia 1.00.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Botev Plovdiv at 42% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia
Botev Plovdiv
- W3-0away to Septemvri Sofia19 September 2026
- W2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Arda Kardzhali4 September 2026
- L1-3Levski Sofia30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Botev Vratsa24 August 2026
Slavia Sofia
- L1-2CSKA 194818 September 2026
- D0-0Spartak Varna13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Dunav Ruse7 September 2026
- L1-2Levski Sofia2 September 2026
- D1-1Septemvri Sofia28 August 2026
What these results say
- Botev Plovdiv scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Slavia Sofia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Slavia Sofia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia
- 20 March 2026Slavia Sofia 0–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 18 October 2025Botev Plovdiv 1–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 3 March 2025Slavia Sofia 3–2 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 19 October 2024Botev Plovdiv 1–0 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 20 May 2024Slavia Sofia 3–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 27 April 2024Botev Plovdiv 0–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Botev Plovdiv carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.25 for Slavia Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.48 goals for Botev Plovdiv and 1.00 for Slavia Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Botev Plovdiv rate 0.68 in attack and 1.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slavia Sofia rate 0.47 and 1.58.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Botev Plovdiv a 0.5% chance of the title and Slavia Sofia 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Botev Plovdiv the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Botev Plovdiv against 1 for Slavia Sofia. Botev Plovdiv's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.58 for Slavia Sofia.