10 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia First League prediction & result

Stadion Hristo Botev, Plovdiv
Referee: Nikola Popov
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Botev Plovdiv 1-0 Slavia Sofia.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Botev Plovdiv, 29% draw, 26% Slavia Sofia — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Botev Plovdiv at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Botev Plovdiv97%Draw3%Slavia Sofia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

34'
Vladimir Miletic
🔁Bryan Heinout: Bogdan Kostov
46'
🔁velian vidolovout: Carlos Meotti
46'
46'
🔁Vladimir Nikolovout: yoan bornosuzov
⚽alberto tajero saidoassist: Mauro Rodrigues
46'
62'
Emil Stoev
Nikola Soldo
67'
🔁alberto tajero saidoout: mascote
68'
🔁Asen Chandarovout: Carlos algarra
68'
73'
🔁vasil kazaldzhievout: Roberto Iliev Raychev
74'
🔁Kristiyan Stoyanovout: umaro balde
🔁Mauro Rodriguesout: Georgi Milanov
83'
Vladimir Mendes
84'
88'
Dimitar Burov
88'
🔁Dimitar Burovout: Jordan Semedo Varela
88'
🔁Emil Stoevout: emilian gogev
90+2'
yoan bornosuzov

Match stats — Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia

58%Possession42%
10Shots3
4On target0
6Corners2

Line-ups

Botev Plovdiv 4-2-3-1
  • 29D. NaumovG
  • 27B. HeinD
  • 4N. SoldoD
  • 87S. PetrovD
  • 82V. MendesD
  • 10A. ChandarovM
  • 77Lucas AraújoM
  • 90S. KaluF
  • 16V. VidolovM
  • 19Mauro RodriguesF
  • 7Alberto SalidoM
Substitutes
  • 14Carlos AlgarraM
  • 20T. AwanyD
  • 88W. ChimezieF
  • 15B. KostovD
  • 30Franklin MascoteF
  • 66C. MeottiF
  • 17G. MilanovM
  • 22M. SengerD
  • 11S. ShopovM
Coach: S. Genchev
Slavia Sofia 4-2-3-1
  • 99I. AndonovG
  • 87D. FerraressoD
  • 4N. SavićD
  • 24L. MarinD
  • 26D. BurovD
  • 95V. MiletićM
  • 71K. StoyanovD
  • 77E. StoevF
  • 73I. MinchevM
  • 17Vasil KazaldzhievF
  • 10V. NikolovM
Substitutes
  • 6B. TodorovM
  • 8Petrov Georgi ShopovF
  • 20J. Semedo VarelaD
  • 7R. RaychevF
  • 63L. NtumbaG
  • 5David MalembanaD
  • 19E. GogevF
  • 3M. GeorgievD
  • 9Y. BornosuzovF
Coach: Ratko Dostanic

Form going into Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia

Botev Plovdiv

First League

  • W3-0away to Septemvri Sofia19 September 2026

Slavia Sofia

First League

  • L1-2CSKA 194818 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Botev Plovdiv147252321+223
8Slavia Sofia1428499014

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia

  • 20 March 2026Slavia Sofia 0–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
  • 18 October 2025Botev Plovdiv 1–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
  • 3 March 2025Slavia Sofia 3–2 Botev PlovdivFirst League
  • 19 October 2024Botev Plovdiv 1–0 Slavia SofiaFirst League
  • 20 May 2024Slavia Sofia 3–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League

Leading scorers: Botev Plovdiv and Slavia Sofia

Botev Plovdiv

GoalsAssists

  • C. Meotti10

Slavia Sofia

No player in First League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Botev Plovdiv beat Slavia Sofia 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Botev Plovdiv at 45%. The goal: alberto tajero saido 46' for Botev Plovdiv.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Botev Plovdiv a 17.8% chance to finish in the top four: 21.3% after a win, 15.7% after a draw, 12.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.3%, 3.5 points higher than before the match.

For Slavia Sofia the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 10.5% going in: 5.1% after a win, 9.1% after a draw, 13.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.1%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our First League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Botev Plovdiv v Slavia Sofia has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 45% / 29% / 26%: the biggest move is Botev Plovdiv's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Botev Plovdiv win45%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Slavia Sofia win26%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.