Club Queretaro
vs
Atlante FC
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Club Queretaro 1–0 Atlante FC
The model makes it 44% Club Queretaro, 29% draw, 27% Atlante FC — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Club Queretaro 1.60, Atlante FC 0.98.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Club Queretaro vs Atlante FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club Queretaro at 44% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Club Queretaro vs Atlante FC
Club Queretaro
- D1-1Leon21 September 2026
- W1-0away to Club Tijuana12 September 2026
- W3-1away to Atlas29 August 2026
- L1-2Toluca22 August 2026
- D0-0away to Pumas UNAM16 August 2026
Atlante FC
- W4-2Monterrey26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Puebla19 September 2026
- L0-3CF Pachuca12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atlas6 September 2026
- D1-1Leon29 August 2026
What these results say
- Club Queretaro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlante FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atlante FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlante FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Club Queretaro | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 14 |
| 13 | Atlante FC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Club Queretaro and Atlante FC
Club Queretaro
- S. Homenchenko4 goals2 assists
- A. Ávila3 goals
Atlante FC
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Club Queretaro carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.52 for Atlante FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Club Queretaro and 0.98 for Atlante FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Club Queretaro rate 0.68 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atlante FC rate 0.70 and 1.36.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Club Queretaro a 6.5% chance of the title and Atlante FC 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club Queretaro the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.6 expected goals for Club Queretaro against 0.98 for Atlante FC. Club Queretaro's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.36 for Atlante FC.