Club Queretaro vs Atlante FC Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Club Queretaro 2-0 Atlante FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Club Queretaro, 27% draw, 23% Atlante FC — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Club Queretaro at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Club Queretaro vs Atlante FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25G. AllisonG
- 16E. GiménezD
- 13D. ReyesD
- 15C. VillanuevaD
- 27D. ParraD
- 4Carlo AdrianoM
- 5S. HomenchenkoM
- 7Iker BenitoM
- 11M. CoronelM
- 17D. MuñozM
- 9A. ÁvilaF
- 241Emiliano Guerrero RamírezM
- 197Joaquín Yael Cruz SosaM
- 30J. MartinezM
- 28J. ArellanoM
- 1J. HernándezG
- 29W. MadridM
- 8B. ParraM
- 26E. PérezF
- 23J. RoblesM
- 1Ó. JiménezG
- 29Walter PortalesD
- 6J. N. CarreraD
- 4E. TerceroD
- 44A. QuirozD
- 37W. ClarD
- 30M. SarrafioreM
- 8E. PizzutoM
- 19L. CalzadillaM
- 9L. PuenteF
- 7J. JulioF
- 15Jairón Andrés Charcopa CabezasF
- 18C. BermúdezM
- 22R. BarraganG
- 32D. BagüíD
- 25M. FernándezM
- 16José GonzálezM
- 34E. JiménezM
- 11Joaquin Alejandro Moxica ChapaF
- 3G. SánchezD
Form going into Club Queretaro vs Atlante FC
Club Queretaro
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Guadalajara Chivas26 September 2026
- D1-1Leon21 September 2026
- W1-0away to Club Tijuana12 September 2026
- W3-1away to Atlas29 August 2026
- L1-2Toluca22 August 2026
Atlante FC
All competitions we cover
- W4-2Monterrey26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Puebla19 September 2026
- L0-3CF Pachuca12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atlas6 September 2026
- D1-1Leon29 August 2026
What these results say
- Club Queretaro scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atlante FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atlante FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlante FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Club Queretaro | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 20 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Club Queretaro and Atlante FC
Club Queretaro
GoalsAssists
- A. Ávila60
Atlante FC
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Club Queretaro beat Atlante FC 2–0. The model had made a win for Club Queretaro its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Santiago Homenchenko (penalty) 25' for Club Queretaro, Denilson Muñoz 50' for Club Queretaro. On expected goals it finished 1.63–0.79.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Club Queretaro a 72.4% chance to finish in the top four: 80.9% after a win, 67.8% after a draw, 56.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 80.9%, 8.5 points higher than before the match.
For Atlante FC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 25.1% going in: 10.0% after a win, 22.8% after a draw, 31.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.1%, 6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Club Queretaro v Atlante FC has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 44% / 29% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 50% / 27% / 23%: the biggest move is Club Queretaro's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Club Queretaro win50%▲ +6
- Draw27%▼ −2
- Atlante FC win23%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.