Botev Vratsa
vs
Spartak Varna
First League prediction
Our model says: Botev Vratsa 1–0 Spartak Varna
The model makes it 41% Botev Vratsa, 30% draw, 29% Spartak Varna — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Botev Vratsa 1.45, Spartak Varna 1.02.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Botev Vratsa at 41% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna
Botev Vratsa
- D2-2away to Dunav Ruse19 September 2026
- D0-0Levski Sofia13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Septemvri Sofia4 September 2026
- L0-2away to Arda Kardzhali31 August 2026
- W1-0Botev Plovdiv24 August 2026
Spartak Varna
- L0-1Lokomotiv Sofia20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Slavia Sofia13 September 2026
- D1-1CSKA Sofia5 September 2026
- D1-1Ludogorets30 August 2026
- L0-6away to Levski Sofia22 August 2026
What these results say
- Spartak Varna did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Spartak Varna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Spartak Varna had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 9 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna
- 2 May 2026Botev Vratsa 2–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 4 December 2025Botev Vratsa 2–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 1 August 2025Spartak Varna 1–1 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 1 April 2025Spartak Varna 1–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
- 13 September 2024Botev Vratsa 1–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 13 May 2023Botev Vratsa 1–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Botev Vratsa carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.1 for Spartak Varna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Botev Vratsa and 1.02 for Spartak Varna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Botev Vratsa rate 0.50 in attack and 1.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Spartak Varna rate 0.47 and 2.11.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Spartak Varna, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Botev Vratsa the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Botev Vratsa against 1.02 for Spartak Varna. Botev Vratsa's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.11 for Spartak Varna.