10 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna First League prediction & result

Hristo Botev Stadium, Vraca
Referee: Stoyanov·Georgi
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Botev Vratsa 0-1 Spartak Varna.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Botev Vratsa, 29% draw, 27% Spartak Varna — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Botev Vratsa at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Botev Vratsa0%Draw4%Spartak Varna96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

43'
David Valverde
46'
🔁anton ivanovout: boris ivanov
57'
⚽Boubacar Hanneassist: Joao Lopes
🔁Martin Smolenskiout: Filip gigov
60'
61'
Angel Granchov
62'
🔁Joao Lopesout: Edson Martinho Silva
Martin Detelinov Petkov
66'
74'
🔁Okoh chideraout: Tsvetelin Chunchukov
74'
🔁David Valverdeout: Deyan Lozev
🔁Vladislav Naydenovout: Daniel Genov
74'
🔁Jose Gallegosout: samuil mechev
74'
84'
🔁ricardo sousaout: Vasco Oliveira
🔁Buchkovout: Boyanov
86'
Ivan Goranov
90+4'

Match stats — Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna

42%Possession58%
22Shots11
10On target4
8Corners7

Line-ups

Botev Vratsa 4-2-3-1
  • 94M. OrlinovG
  • 3S. SanyangD
  • 4I. GoranovF
  • 36M. StoevD
  • 25A. BuchkovD
  • 7R. TsonevM
  • 12I. YurukovM
  • 24M. SmolenskiM
  • 10J. GallegosM
  • 97V. NaydenovF
  • 79M. PetkovF
Substitutes
  • 17S. MechevF
  • 6A. KichukovM
  • 90F. GigovF
  • 9D. GenovD
  • 21M. DimitrovD
  • 88L. BoyanovD
  • 11M. AchkovD
  • 8A. StoyanovM
  • 98L. VasilevG
Coach: Todor Simov
Spartak Varna 4-2-3-1
  • 23P. IlievG
  • 76David ValverdeD
  • 44A. GranchovD
  • 5D. KrastevD
  • 29Z. TindanoD
  • 19S. MajorM
  • 6José Ricardo Gomes SousaM
  • 11Boubacar HanneF
  • 10J. LopesF
  • 77A. IvanovF
  • 90C. OkohF
Substitutes
  • 1Pedro VictorG
  • 7BuaM
  • 9T. ChunchukovF
  • 4B. IvanovD
  • 20D. LozevD
  • 72Vasco OliveiraD
  • 14Daniel PavlovM
  • 16Edson SilvaM
  • 45J. TshitokuD
Coach: V. Petrov

Form going into Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna

Botev Vratsa

First League

  • D2-2away to Dunav Ruse19 September 2026

Spartak Varna

First League

  • L0-1Lokomotiv Sofia20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Botev Vratsa142481124-1310
7Spartak Varna144461525-1016

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna

  • 2 May 2026Botev Vratsa 2–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
  • 4 December 2025Botev Vratsa 2–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
  • 1 August 2025Spartak Varna 1–1 Botev VratsaFirst League
  • 1 April 2025Spartak Varna 1–0 Botev VratsaFirst League
  • 13 September 2024Botev Vratsa 1–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League

Leading scorers: Botev Vratsa and Spartak Varna

Botev Vratsa

No player in First League's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Spartak Varna

GoalsAssists

  • Georg Stojanovski11
  • J. Tshitoku10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Spartak Varna won 1–0 at Botev Vratsa. The model had leaned towards a win for Botev Vratsa at 44% and given a win for Spartak Varna 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Boubacar Hanne 57' for Spartak Varna.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Botev Vratsa a 21.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 14.7% after a win, 24.9% after a draw, 29.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.1%, 7.6 points higher than before the match.

For Spartak Varna the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 36.7% going in: 24.2% after a win, 36.6% after a draw, 43.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.2%, 12.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our First League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Botev Vratsa v Spartak Varna has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 44% / 29% / 27%: the biggest move is Botev Vratsa's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Botev Vratsa win44%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Spartak Varna win27%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.