Puebla vs Leon Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Puebla 1-1 Leon.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Puebla, 29% draw, 32% Leon — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Puebla at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Puebla vs Leon
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28R. GutiérrezG
- 12I. MorenoD
- 5F. AlmadaD
- 4J. VargasD
- 7F. MonárrezD
- 24A. OrganistaM
- 16A. RamírezM
- 27B. GarnicaM
- 10M. TomásM
- 8O. MorenoM
- 9L. HernándezF
- 15Ó. VillaD
- 25H. JuradoF
- 3A. HerreraM
- 14E. ArmentaM
- 2Á. LeyvaD
- 19I. Maestro PuchF
- 29E. MustreF
- 20J. PachucaD
- 33J. RodríguezG
- 181Irving MartínezG
- 7I. MorenoD
- 14J. RomañaD
- 3Juan José Guevara PossuD
- 26S. ReyesD
- 29J. RodríguezM
- 18E. GuerraM
- 203J. LaraM
- 6F. BeltránM
- 11I. DíazM
- 27D. CambindoF
- 25P. BellónD
- 4B. ColulaD
- 16J. CortizoM
- 8J. DomínguezM
- 20R. EcheverríaD
- 23Ó. GarcíaG
- 5S. VegasD
- 33A. VillegasD
- 13D. ArcilaM
Form going into Puebla vs Leon
Puebla
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Tigres UANL27 September 2026
- D1-1Atlante FC19 September 2026
- L0-1Toluca16 September 2026
- W1-0away to Necaxa12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Club America30 August 2026
Leon
All competitions we cover
- W2-1FC Juarez28 September 2026
- D1-1away to Club Queretaro21 September 2026
- W2-0Atletico San Luis15 September 2026
- L1-3away to Pumas UNAM11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atlante FC29 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Puebla had two goals or fewer.
- Puebla failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Puebla conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Leon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Leon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Leon.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 19 |
| 7 | Leon | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Puebla vs Leon
- 11 April 2026Puebla 0–1 LeonLiga MX
- 9 November 2025Leon 1–2 PueblaLiga MX
- 12 April 2025Leon 1–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 17 July 2024Puebla 2–2 LeonLiga MX
- 17 March 2024Leon 2–1 PueblaLiga MX
Leading scorers: Puebla and Leon
Puebla
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Leon
GoalsAssists
- J. Alvarado61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Puebla and Leon drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Puebla at 39% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ismael Díaz 42' for Leon, Eduardo Armenta 87' for Puebla. Sent off: Jordi Cortizo (Leon) 90+1'. On expected goals it finished 0.71–1.87.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Puebla a 7.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 1.5% after a win, 8.2% after a draw, 13.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 8.2%, 1 points higher than before the match.
For Leon the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 12.2% going in: 20.1% after a win, 10.4% after a draw, 6.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 10.4%, 1.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.