Puebla
vs
Leon
Liga MX prediction
Our model says: Puebla 1–0 Leon
The model makes it 39% Puebla, 29% draw, 32% Leon — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Puebla 1.44, Leon 1.18.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Puebla vs Leon
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Puebla at 39% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Puebla vs Leon
Puebla
- D1-1Atlante FC19 September 2026
- L0-1Toluca16 September 2026
- W1-0away to Necaxa12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Club America30 August 2026
- W3-2Santos Laguna23 August 2026
Leon
- D1-1away to Club Queretaro21 September 2026
- W2-0Atletico San Luis15 September 2026
- L1-3away to Pumas UNAM11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atlante FC29 August 2026
- W2-0Monterrey22 August 2026
What these results say
- Puebla conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Puebla had two goals or fewer.
- Leon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Leon had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Puebla | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 7 | Leon | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Puebla vs Leon
- 11 April 2026Puebla 0–1 LeonLiga MX
- 9 November 2025Leon 1–2 PueblaLiga MX
- 12 April 2025Leon 1–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 17 July 2024Puebla 2–2 LeonLiga MX
- 17 March 2024Leon 2–1 PueblaLiga MX
- 4 November 2023Puebla 5–4 LeonLiga MX
Leading scorers: Puebla and Leon
Puebla
- E. Mustre3 goals1 assists
Leon
- D. Arcila4 goals
- D. Cambindo3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Puebla carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.51 for Leon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Puebla and 1.18 for Leon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Puebla rate 0.61 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Leon rate 0.69 and 1.36.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Leon, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Puebla a 1.2% chance of the title and Leon 1.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Puebla the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Puebla against 1.18 for Leon. Puebla's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.36 for Leon.