Gwangju FC
vs
Bucheon FC 1995
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: Gwangju FC 2–1 Bucheon FC 1995
The model makes it 40% Gwangju FC, 26% draw, 34% Bucheon FC 1995 — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Gwangju FC 1.58, Bucheon FC 1995 1.41.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Gwangju FC's rating is built from 73 K League 1 matches and Bucheon FC 1995's from 37, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 674 matches.
Key facts
- Gwangju FC are 12th on 23 points from 35 games; Bucheon FC 1995 are 11th on 33 points from 35 games — K League 1, Relegation Group.
- Gwangju FC are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Jeju United FC.
- Bucheon FC 1995 have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Pohang Steelers.
- Last 6 meetings: Gwangju FC 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 October 2026, ended Bucheon FC 1995 0–3 Gwangju FC.
More K League 1 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gwangju FC vs Bucheon FC 1995
Has the model earned this number?
Gwangju FC at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Gwangju FC vs Bucheon FC 1995
Gwangju FC
K League 1
- D1-1away to Jeju United FC7 November 2026
- D1-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC31 October 2026
- W3-0away to Bucheon FC 199524 October 2026
- L2-3away to Daejeon Citizen18 October 2026
- W4-3Ulsan Hyundai FC11 October 2026
Bucheon FC 1995
K League 1
- D2-2Pohang Steelers8 November 2026
- L1-2away to FC Anyang1 November 2026
- L0-3Gwangju FC24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Ulsan Hyundai FC17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Gangwon FC9 October 2026
What these results say
- Gwangju FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gwangju FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Gwangju FC.
- Bucheon FC 1995 did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Bucheon FC 1995 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bucheon FC 1995 had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 35 | 3 | 14 | 18 | 32 | 71 | -39 | 23 |
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 35 | 7 | 12 | 16 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gwangju FC vs Bucheon FC 1995
- 24 October 2026Bucheon FC 1995 0–3 Gwangju FCK League 1
- 8 August 2026Bucheon FC 1995 0–0 Gwangju FCK League 1
- 11 April 2026Gwangju FC 0–1 Bucheon FC 1995K League 1
- 27 August 2025Bucheon FC 1995 1–2 Gwangju FCFA Cup
- 20 August 2025Gwangju FC 2–0 Bucheon FC 1995FA Cup
- 19 June 2024Bucheon FC 1995 2–3 Gwangju FCFA Cup
Leading scorers: Gwangju FC and Bucheon FC 1995
Gwangju FC
GoalsAssists
- J. Iredale90
Bucheon FC 1995
GoalsAssists
- Jefferson Galego51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gwangju FC the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Gwangju FC against 1.41 for Bucheon FC 1995. Gwangju FC's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.79 for Bucheon FC 1995.
How the model reaches 40% for Gwangju FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Gwangju FC to win. Then home advantage adds 3 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Gwangju FC's ratings change nothing and Bucheon FC 1995's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage39%+3
- Both sides at this match's level40%+1
- Gwangju FC's ratings40%±0
- Bucheon FC 1995's ratings40%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Gwangju FC at home · Bucheon FC 1995 away
League matches only, K League 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All K League 1 matches this season: Gwangju FC 35, Bucheon FC 1995 35.
Gwangju FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Bucheon FC 1995 have let in 13 there.
Bucheon FC 1995 score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Gwangju FC have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Gwangju FC
- at Pohang Steelers28 Nov · K League 1win 29%
- at FC Anyang5 Dec · K League 1win 29%
Bucheon FC 1995
- vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC28 Nov · K League 1win 31%
- at Jeju United FC5 Dec · K League 1win 24%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.