Al Ahli Doha
vs
Al Shahaniya
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al Ahli Doha 2–1 Al Shahaniya
The model makes it 49% Al Ahli Doha, 23% draw, 28% Al Shahaniya — fair odds of 2.04, 4.35 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Al Ahli Doha 2.25, Al Shahaniya 1.56.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%, under 2.5: 27%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Edge to Al Ahli Doha: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. Al Ahli Doha's rating is built from 29 Qatar Stars League matches and Al Shahaniya's from 30, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 303 matches.
Key facts
- Al Ahli Doha are 7th on 8 points from 7 games; Al Shahaniya are 8th on 7 points from 7 games — Stars League.
- Al Ahli Doha have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Al-Gharafa.
- Al Shahaniya have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat at home to Al Sadd.
- Last 6 meetings: Al Ahli Doha 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 20 September 2026, ended Al Ahli Doha 0–1 Al Shahaniya.
More Qatar Stars League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Ahli Doha vs Al Shahaniya
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Ahli Doha at 49% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al Ahli Doha vs Al Shahaniya
Al Ahli Doha
Stars League
- D2-2away to Al-Gharafa22 October 2026
- L0-3Al Wakrah16 October 2026
- W5-0Al-Sailiya10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Al-Rayyan SC11 September 2026
- W1-0Qatar SC3 September 2026
Al Shahaniya
Stars League
- L0-4Al Sadd22 October 2026
- L0-6Al-Arabi SC16 October 2026
- W1-0Lusail City10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Al-Duhail SC12 September 2026
- L2-4away to Al Shamal4 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Al Ahli Doha had three goals or more.
- Al Shahaniya failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Al Shahaniya conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Al Ahli Doha | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
| 8 | Al Shahaniya | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Ahli Doha vs Al Shahaniya
- 20 September 2026Al Ahli Doha 0–1 Al ShahaniyaQSL Cup
- 27 February 2026Al Ahli Doha 1–2 Al ShahaniyaStars League
- 26 September 2025Al Shahaniya 1–2 Al Ahli DohaStars League
- 13 May 2025Al Ahli Doha 2–1 Al ShahaniyaEmir Cup
- 4 April 2025Al Shahaniya 2–3 Al Ahli DohaStars League
- 1 November 2024Al Ahli Doha 2–1 Al ShahaniyaStars League
Leading scorers: Al Ahli Doha and Al Shahaniya
Al Ahli Doha
GoalsAssists
- J. Draxler31
- N. Sliti21
Al Shahaniya
GoalsAssists
- F. Antonucci32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al Ahli Doha carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.16 for Al Shahaniya. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.25 goals for Al Ahli Doha and 1.56 for Al Shahaniya. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Ahli Doha rate 0.64 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al Shahaniya rate 0.50 and 1.99.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Ahli Doha the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Al Ahli Doha against 1.56 for Al Shahaniya. Al Ahli Doha's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.99 for Al Shahaniya.
How the model reaches 49% for Al Ahli Doha to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 38% for Al Ahli Doha to win. Then home advantage changes nothing, Al Ahli Doha's ratings take away 25 points and Al Shahaniya's ratings add 36 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground38%
- Home advantage38%±0
- Al Ahli Doha's ratings13%−25
- Al Shahaniya's ratings49%+36
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al Ahli Doha at home · Al Shahaniya away
League matches only, Stars League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Stars League matches this season: Al Ahli Doha 7, Al Shahaniya 7.
Al Ahli Doha score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Al Shahaniya have let in 4 there.
Al Shahaniya score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Al Ahli Doha have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Al Ahli Doha
- at Al-Arabi SC20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 27%
- vs Al Shamal27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 37%
- vs Al-Duhail SC3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 24%
Al Shahaniya
- vs Al Wakrah20 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 25%
- vs Al-Rayyan SC27 Nov · Stars Leaguewin 15%
- at Qatar SC3 Dec · Stars Leaguewin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.