Brisbane Roar
vs
Perth Glory
A-League prediction
Our model says: Brisbane Roar 1–2 Perth Glory
The model makes it 34% Brisbane Roar, 27% draw, 39% Perth Glory — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Brisbane Roar 1.42, Perth Glory 1.53.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Last 6 meetings: Perth Glory 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 25 April 2026, ended Perth Glory 2–1 Brisbane Roar.
More A-League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Perth Glory at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Head-to-head: Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory
- 25 April 2026Perth Glory 2–1 Brisbane RoarA-League
- 28 February 2026Brisbane Roar 1–1 Perth GloryA-League
- 16 January 2026Perth Glory 1–2 Brisbane RoarA-League
- 15 March 2025Perth Glory 1–3 Brisbane RoarA-League
- 21 December 2024Brisbane Roar 0–1 Perth GloryA-League
- 23 July 2024Brisbane Roar 2–4 Perth GloryAustralia Cup
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Brisbane Roar carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.26 for Perth Glory. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Brisbane Roar and 1.53 for Perth Glory. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Brisbane Roar rate 0.49 in attack and 1.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Perth Glory rate 0.54 and 1.77.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Perth Glory the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Brisbane Roar against 1.53 for Perth Glory. Brisbane Roar's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.77 for Perth Glory.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Brisbane Roar
- vs Auckland FC30 Oct · A-Leaguewin 26%
- at Macarthur FC8 Nov · A-Leaguewin 33%
- vs Sydney FC21 Nov · A-Leaguewin 29%
- at Central Coast Mariners12 Dec · A-Leaguewin 33%
- at Adelaide United15 Dec · A-Leaguewin 28%
Perth Glory
- vs Adelaide United1 Nov · A-Leaguewin 33%
- vs Newcastle Jets7 Nov · A-Leaguewin 30%
- at Central Coast Mariners21 Nov · A-Leaguewin 36%
- at Western Sydney Wanderers5 Dec · A-Leaguewin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.