Sweden vs Poland UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Sweden 3-1 Poland.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Sweden, 28% draw, 39% Poland — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Poland at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sweden vs Poland
Line-ups
- 12V. JohanssonG
- 8D. SvenssonD
- 15C. StarfeltD
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 5G. GudmundssonD
- 11P. WålemarkM
- 7L. BergvallM
- 18Y. AyariM
- 22B. ZeneliM
- 10B. NygrenF
- 17V. GyökeresF
- 21A. BernhardssonF
- 1N. TörnqvistG
- 9P. AbrahamF
- 23M. EllborgG
- 16J. KarlströmM
- 2G. LagerbielkeD
- 20H. LarssonM
- 6J. MellbergD
- 19S. NanasiM
- 1M. BułkaG
- 3P. WiśniewskiD
- 5J. BednarekD
- 14J. KiwiorD
- 2M. CashM
- 16W. NowakM
- 10P. ZielińskiM
- 15T. PuchaczM
- 20S. SzymańskiF
- 13M. ŻukowskiF
- 21N. ZalewskiF
- 4T. KędzioraD
- 12M. KochalskiG
- 9R. LewandowskiF
- 7W. MońkaD
- 23K. PotulskiD
- 18M. RegułaM
- 17M. SkóraśF
- 6B. SliszM
- 11K. ŚwiderskiF
Form going into Sweden vs Poland
Sweden
UEFA Nations League
- W2-1Romania25 September 2026
Poland
UEFA Nations League
- D0-0Bosnia & Herzegovina25 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sweden | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 | Poland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sweden vs Poland
- 31 March 2026Sweden 3–2 PolandWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 29 March 2022Poland 2–0 SwedenWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 23 June 2021Sweden 3–2 PolandEuro Championship
Leading scorers: Sweden and Poland
Sweden
GoalsAssists
- V. Gyökeres40
Poland
GoalsAssists
- R. Lewandowski30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sweden beat Poland 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Poland at 39% and given a win for Sweden 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Benjamin Nygren 8' for Sweden, Sebastian Szymański 43' for Poland, Yasin Ayari 63' for Sweden, Viktor Gyökeres 72' for Sweden.