Latvia vs Cyprus UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Latvia 0-0 Cyprus.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Latvia, 31% draw, 39% Cyprus — fair odds of 3.33, 3.23 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cyprus at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Latvia vs Cyprus
Line-ups
- 23R. MatrevicsG
- 11R. SavaļnieksD
- 21D. MeļņiksD
- 5A. ČernomordijsD
- 3D. CirkinD
- 14A. CigaņiksD
- 15D. ZelenkovsM
- 8E. EmsisM
- 10L. VapneM
- 9V. GutkovskisF
- 20R. UldriķisF
- 1N. PuriņšG
- 12F. OrolsG
- 7E. DašķevičsF
- 13R. JurkovskisD
- 22A. SaveļjevsM
- 17M. StrodsM
- 6D. PatijčuksM
- 4O. VientiessD
- 2D. BalodisD
- 1FabianoG
- 17N. TsaroullaD
- 5K. SotiriouD
- 3N. PanagiotouD
- 14G. MalekkidesD
- 18K. ArtymatasM
- 20G. KastanosM
- 23M. EdwardsM
- 13I. KostiM
- 10L. LoizouM
- 9I. PittasF
- 16P. AndreouM
- 6A. ChristouD
- 19S. GeorgiouF
- 11A. KakoullisF
- 4H. KyprianouM
- 12J. MallG
- 22N. MichaelG
- 7A. NeophytouF
- 2K. PileasD
Form going into Latvia vs Cyprus
Latvia
UEFA Nations League
- L0-2away to Armenia25 September 2026
Cyprus
UEFA Nations League
- L1-2away to Montenegro25 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Latvia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
| 2 | Cyprus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Latvia vs Cyprus
- 21 March 2024Cyprus 1–1 LatviaFriendlies
The result against the call
Latvia and Cyprus drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Cyprus at 39% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.