Romania vs Bosnia & Herzegovina UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Romania 2-4 Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Romania, 30% draw, 29% Bosnia & Herzegovina — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Romania at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Romania vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
Line-ups
- 1I. RaduG
- 4A. CoubișD
- 15A. BurcăD
- 3M. IlieD
- 23L. EissatD
- 10N. StanciuM
- 17V. ScreciuM
- 22V. DragomirM
- 20D. OlaruM
- 11D. BîrligeaF
- 13V. MihăilăF
- 14A. BorzaD
- 6T. BăluțăM
- 8A. CicâldăuM
- 18C. CîrjanM
- 16V. CojocaruG
- 5V. GhițăD
- 12O. HindrichG
- 19D. MateiM
- 21O. MoruțanF
- 22M. ZlomislićG
- 15A. MemićD
- 18N. KatićD
- 4T. MuharemovićD
- 5S. KolašinacD
- 13I. BašićM
- 8A. GigovićM
- 20E. BajraktarevicM
- 16Ermin MahmićM
- 19Kerim-Sam AlajbegovićM
- 23H. TabakovićF
- 7Z. SmajlovićD
- 14I. ŠunjićM
- 6B. TahirovićM
- 21S. RadeljićD
- 2N. MujakićD
- 3A. MalicD
- 11J. LukićF
- 1M. JurkasG
- 17A. HasićM
Form going into Romania vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
Romania
UEFA Nations League
- L1-2away to Sweden25 September 2026
Bosnia & Herzegovina
UEFA Nations League
- D0-0away to Poland25 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Romania | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 13 | -10 | 0 |
| 2 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Romania vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
- 15 November 2025Bosnia & Herzegovina 3–1 RomaniaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 21 March 2025Romania 0–1 Bosnia & HerzegovinaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 26 September 2022Romania 4–1 Bosnia & HerzegovinaUEFA Nations League
- 7 June 2022Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–0 RomaniaUEFA Nations League
The result against the call
Bosnia & Herzegovina won 4–2 at Romania. The model had leaned towards a win for Romania at 41% and given a win for Bosnia & Herzegovina 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Armin Gigovic 12' for Bosnia & Herzegovina, Tarik Muharemovic 19' for Bosnia & Herzegovina, Daniel Birligea 28' for Romania, Haris Tabaković 40' for Bosnia & Herzegovina, Ermin Mahmić 55' for Bosnia & Herzegovina, Alexandru Cicâldău 62' for Romania.