Northern Ireland vs Hungary UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Northern Ireland 0-0 Hungary.
Before kick-off the model made it 26% Northern Ireland, 31% draw, 43% Hungary — fair odds of 3.85, 3.23 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hungary at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Northern Ireland vs Hungary
Line-ups
- 1P. CharlesG
- 4Tom AtchesonD
- 15Ruairi McConvilleD
- 22C. BrownD
- 5T. HumeM
- 19S. CharlesM
- 7E. GalbraithM
- 3J. DevennyM
- 16Patrick KellyM
- 14I. PriceM
- 10J. DonleyF
- 2T. DevlinM
- 6M. ForbesD
- 8D. CharlesF
- 18B. GrahamF
- 12C. HazardG
- 21J. MagennisF
- 17P. McNairD
- 13K. MorrisonM
- 9C. O’NeillF
- 1B. TóthG
- 14B. BollaD
- 6W. OrbánD
- 3M. CsingerD
- 11M. KerkezD
- 13A. SchäferM
- 15Á. CsongvaiM
- 17G. JurekM
- 7Tamás SzücsM
- 10D. SzoboszlaiM
- 16D. LukacsF
- 5A. MarkgráfD
- 18Z. NagyD
- 2A. OsváthD
- 22Á. PécsiG
- 4K. SzűcsD
- 21A. TóthM
- 20M. TóthF
- 19B. VárkonyiD
- 8M. VitálisM
Form going into Northern Ireland vs Hungary
Northern Ireland
UEFA Nations League
- W1-0away to Georgia25 September 2026
Hungary
UEFA Nations League
- L0-1Ukraine25 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northern Ireland | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 8 |
| 2 | Hungary | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Northern Ireland vs Hungary
- 29 March 2022Northern Ireland 0–1 HungaryFriendlies
The result against the call
Northern Ireland and Hungary drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Hungary at 43% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.