Fortuna Düsseldorf
vs
SV Meppen
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1–0 SV Meppen
The model makes it 54% Fortuna Düsseldorf, 26% draw, 20% SV Meppen — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.73, SV Meppen 0.83.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Fortuna Düsseldorf: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Fortuna Düsseldorf are 6th on 14 points from 9 games; SV Meppen are 16th on 10 points from 9 games — 3. Liga.
- Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Preußen Münster.
- SV Meppen have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Hansa Rostock.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Meppen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fortuna Düsseldorf at 54% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Meppen
Fortuna Düsseldorf
- W2-1away to Preußen Münster14 October 2026
- D2-2Verl11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Alemannia Aachen19 September 2026
- W2-1away to SSV Jahn Regensburg15 September 2026
- W2-1MSV Duisburg12 September 2026
SV Meppen
- W2-0away to Hansa Rostock13 October 2026
- D1-1Stuttgart II10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Hoffenheim II19 September 2026
- L1-3FC Viktoria Köln15 September 2026
- L1-2away to Verl12 September 2026
What these results say
- Fortuna Düsseldorf conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fortuna Düsseldorf scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fortuna Düsseldorf had three goals or more.
- SV Meppen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- SV Meppen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- SV Meppen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 14 |
| 16 | SV Meppen | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Meppen
- 6 January 2023Fortuna Dusseldorf 4–3 SV MeppenFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Meppen
Fortuna Düsseldorf
GoalsAssists
- E. Hottmann10
SV Meppen
No player in 3. Liga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Fortuna Düsseldorf carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.15 for SV Meppen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 0.83 for SV Meppen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fortuna Düsseldorf rate 0.58 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SV Meppen rate 0.45 and 1.83.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 6.6% chance of the title and SV Meppen 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf against 0.83 for SV Meppen. Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.83 for SV Meppen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fortuna Düsseldorf at home · SV Meppen away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Fortuna Düsseldorf 9, SV Meppen 9.
Fortuna Düsseldorf score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); SV Meppen have let in 3 there.
SV Meppen score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Fortuna Düsseldorf have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Fortuna Düsseldorf
- at FC Ingolstadt 047 Nov · 3. Ligawin 35%
- vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 60%
- at Würzburger Kickers28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 42%
SV Meppen
- vs SSV Jahn Regensburg8 Nov · 3. Ligawin 38%
- at Fortuna Köln21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 27%
- at SV Wehen29 Nov · 3. Ligawin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.