Würzburger Kickers
vs
Hoffenheim II
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: Würzburger Kickers 1–2 Hoffenheim II
The model makes it 36% Würzburger Kickers, 26% draw, 38% Hoffenheim II — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Würzburger Kickers 1.50, Hoffenheim II 1.57.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
A tight game: Würzburger Kickers and Hoffenheim II are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Würzburger Kickers's rating is built from 11 3. Liga matches and Hoffenheim II's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Würzburger Kickers are 17th on 11 points from 11 games; Hoffenheim II are 7th on 16 points from 10 games — 3. Liga.
- Würzburger Kickers have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-4 defeat away to SV Meppen.
- Hoffenheim II have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Verl.
- Last 2 meetings: Hoffenheim II 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 22 January 2025, ended Hoffenheim II 3–1 Würzburger Kickers.
More 3. Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Würzburger Kickers vs Hoffenheim II
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hoffenheim II at 38% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Würzburger Kickers vs Hoffenheim II
Würzburger Kickers
3. Liga
- L0-4away to SV Meppen24 October 2026
- W2-0Waldhof Mannheim17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Havelse13 October 2026
- L0-2Hansa Rostock10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Verl18 September 2026
Hoffenheim II
3. Liga
- W2-1Verl18 October 2026
- L2-3away to Stuttgart II13 October 2026
- L2-3away to MSV Duisburg10 October 2026
- W1-0SV Meppen19 September 2026
- W2-1away to FC Ingolstadt 0416 September 2026
What these results say
- Würzburger Kickers failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Würzburger Kickers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hoffenheim II scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hoffenheim II conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Hoffenheim II had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Würzburger Kickers | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 11 |
| 7 | Hoffenheim II | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Würzburger Kickers vs Hoffenheim II
- 22 January 2025Hoffenheim II 3–1 Würzburger KickersFriendlies Clubs
- 22 January 2025Hoffenheim II 3–1 Würzburger KickersFriendlies Clubs
The two sides
Würzburger Kickers carry a model rating of 6.07 against 6.24 for Hoffenheim II. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Würzburger Kickers and 1.57 for Hoffenheim II. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Würzburger Kickers rate 0.46 in attack and 2.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hoffenheim II rate 0.59 and 2.00.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Würzburger Kickers a 0% chance of the title and Hoffenheim II 1.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hoffenheim II the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Würzburger Kickers against 1.57 for Hoffenheim II. Würzburger Kickers's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/2 for Hoffenheim II.
How the model reaches 38% for Hoffenheim II to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Hoffenheim II to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Würzburger Kickers's ratings add 43 points and Hoffenheim II's ratings take away 34 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Würzburger Kickers's ratings72%+43
- Hoffenheim II's ratings38%−34
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Würzburger Kickers at home · Hoffenheim II away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: Würzburger Kickers 11, Hoffenheim II 10.
Würzburger Kickers score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Hoffenheim II have let in 4 there.
Hoffenheim II score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Würzburger Kickers have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Würzburger Kickers
- at SSV Jahn Regensburg21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 20%
- vs Fortuna Düsseldorf28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 35%
- vs FC Viktoria Köln5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 27%
- at FC Saarbrücken12 Dec · 3. Ligawin 19%
Hoffenheim II
- vs Preußen Münster21 Nov · 3. Ligawin 53%
- at Rot-Weiß Essen28 Nov · 3. Ligawin 24%
- vs FC Saarbrücken5 Dec · 3. Ligawin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.