Aarhus
vs
SC Braga
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Aarhus 1–2 SC Braga
The model makes it 31% Aarhus, 27% draw, 42% SC Braga — fair odds of 3.23, 3.70 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Aarhus 1.28, SC Braga 1.58.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,036 settled matches.
Edge to SC Braga: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Aarhus's rating is built from 43 Danish Superliga matches and SC Braga's from 42 Primeira Liga matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,094 matches.
Key facts
- Aarhus are 29th on 0 points from 1 game; SC Braga are 35th on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa Conference League.
- Aarhus are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to FC Copenhagen.
- SC Braga are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to GIL Vicente.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aarhus vs SC Braga
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SC Braga at 42% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 2,039 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Aarhus vs SC Braga
Aarhus
- L0-1away to Gent15 October 2026
SC Braga
- L0-3away to FC Copenhagen15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Aarhus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 35 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Aarhus carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.94 for SC Braga. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.28 goals for Aarhus and 1.58 for SC Braga. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Aarhus rate 0.79 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SC Braga rate 1.13 and 0.94.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Aarhus, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Braga the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Aarhus against 1.58 for SC Braga. Aarhus's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.13/0.94 for SC Braga.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Aarhus's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and SC Braga's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Aarhus at home · SC Braga away
League matches only, this season — Aarhus in the Superliga, SC Braga in the Primeira Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Aarhus 11 in the Superliga, SC Braga 8 in the Primeira Liga.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Aarhus
- vs AC Horsens8 Nov · Superligawin 49%
- vs Lyngby20 Nov · Superligawin 58%
SC Braga
- at Rio Ave8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 53%
- vs KuPS26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 75%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.