Atalanta
vs
Kairat Almaty
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Atalanta 4–0 Kairat Almaty
The model makes it 92% Atalanta, 6% draw, 2% Kairat Almaty — fair odds of 1.09, 16.67 and 50.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 4-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Atalanta 4.41, Kairat Almaty 0.49.
Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 86%, under 2.5: 14%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,433 settled matches.
One-sided: Atalanta are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Atalanta's rating is built from 45 Serie A matches over this season and last, recent ones weighted most; Kairat Almaty's from its last 6 matches. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,094 matches.
Key facts
- Atalanta are 4th on 3 points from 1 game; Kairat Almaty are 18th on 1 point from 1 game — UEFA Europa Conference League.
- Atalanta have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to AC Milan.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atalanta at 92% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 349 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 64.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.7%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty
Atalanta
- W3-1Pafos15 October 2026
Kairat Almaty
- D1-1away to Riga15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 18 | Kairat Almaty | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
A clear gap in the ratings
Atalanta carry a model rating of 7.02 against 6.1 for Kairat Almaty. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 4.41 goals for Atalanta and 0.49 for Kairat Almaty. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atalanta rate 1.19 in attack and 0.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Kairat Almaty rate 0.48 and 2.14.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atalanta the highest probability at 92%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 4.41 expected goals for Atalanta against 0.49 for Kairat Almaty. Atalanta's attack/defence rating is 1.19/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.14 for Kairat Almaty.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Atalanta
- at Monza8 Nov · Serie Awin 45%
Kairat Almaty
- vs Mjallby AIF26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 35%
- vs Universitatea Craiova10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 14%
- at Twente17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 4%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.