Sunderland
vs
Arsenal
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Sunderland 0-2 Arsenal.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Sunderland, 32% draw, 39% Arsenal — fair odds of 3.45, 3.13 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Sunderland 0.92, Arsenal 1.23.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Sunderland vs Arsenal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arsenal at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sunderland vs Arsenal
Line-ups
- 22R. RoefsG
- 20N. MukieleD
- 4K. DansoD
- 5D. BallardD
- 17ReinildoD
- 34G. XhakaM
- 27N. SadikiM
- 12T. MeunierM
- 28E. Le FéeM
- 10N. AnguloM
- 9B. BrobbeyF
- 11C. RiggM
- 7C. TalbiF
- 15O. AldereteD
- 31M. EllborgG
- 39M. FofanaF
- 32T. HumeD
- 18W. IsidorF
- 6D. MethalieD
- 13L. O'NienM
- 1David RayaG
- 4B. WhiteD
- 15E. KonsaD
- 6Gabriel MagalhãesD
- 33R. CalafioriD
- 41D. RiceM
- 49M. Lewis-SkellyM
- 7B. SakaM
- 8M. ØdegaardM
- 17C. TzolisM
- 29K. HavertzF
- 39Bruno GuimarãesM
- 10E. EzeM
- 14V. GyökeresF
- 5P. HincapiéD
- 20N. MaduekeF
- 23Mikel MerinoM
- 12J. TimberD
- 36Martín ZubimendiM
- 13KepaG
Form going into Sunderland vs Arsenal
Sunderland
- D1-1away to Brentford5 September 2026
- W1-0Fulham30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Ipswich22 August 2026
Arsenal
- W2-1Chelsea6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Aston Villa31 August 2026
- W3-0Coventry21 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Sunderland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 1 | Arsenal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sunderland vs Arsenal
- 12 September 2026Sunderland 0–2 ArsenalPremier League
- 7 February 2026Arsenal 3–0 SunderlandPremier League
- 8 November 2025Sunderland 2–2 ArsenalPremier League
- 21 December 2021Arsenal 5–1 SunderlandLeague Cup
- 16 May 2017Arsenal 2–0 SunderlandPremier League
- 29 October 2016Sunderland 1–4 ArsenalPremier League
Leading scorers: Sunderland and Arsenal
Sunderland
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Arsenal
- B. Saka3 goals
- M. Ødegaard2 goals
- K. Havertz2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 0.92 goals for Sunderland and 1.23 for Arsenal; the game produced 0 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Bruno Guimarães 58' (Arsenal), Bukayo Saka 90' (Arsenal).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arsenal the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Sunderland against 1.23 for Arsenal. Sunderland's attack/defence rating is 0.91/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.12/0.62 for Arsenal.