Sunderland vs Arsenal Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Sunderland 0-2 Arsenal.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Sunderland, 31% draw, 36% Arsenal — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arsenal at 36% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sunderland vs Arsenal
Line-ups
- 22R. RoefsG
- 20N. MukieleD
- 4K. DansoD
- 5D. BallardD
- 17ReinildoD
- 34G. XhakaM
- 27N. SadikiM
- 12T. MeunierM
- 28E. Le FéeM
- 10N. AnguloM
- 9B. BrobbeyF
- 11C. RiggM
- 7C. TalbiF
- 15O. AldereteD
- 31M. EllborgG
- 39M. FofanaF
- 32T. HumeD
- 18W. IsidorF
- 6D. MethalieD
- 13L. O'NienM
- 1David RayaG
- 4B. WhiteD
- 15E. KonsaD
- 6Gabriel MagalhãesD
- 33R. CalafioriD
- 41D. RiceM
- 49M. Lewis-SkellyM
- 7B. SakaM
- 8M. ØdegaardM
- 17C. TzolisM
- 29K. HavertzF
- 39Bruno GuimarãesM
- 10E. EzeM
- 14V. GyökeresF
- 5P. HincapiéD
- 20N. MaduekeF
- 23Mikel MerinoM
- 12J. TimberD
- 36Martín ZubimendiM
- 13KepaG
Form going into Sunderland vs Arsenal
Sunderland
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Brentford5 September 2026
- W1-0Fulham30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Ipswich22 August 2026
Arsenal
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Napoli9 September 2026
- W2-1Chelsea6 September 2026
- W1-0away to Aston Villa31 August 2026
- W3-0Coventry21 August 2026
What these results say
- Arsenal won every one of these 4 matches.
- Arsenal scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Arsenal kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Sunderland | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sunderland vs Arsenal
- 7 February 2026Arsenal 3–0 SunderlandPremier League
- 8 November 2025Sunderland 2–2 ArsenalPremier League
- 21 December 2021Arsenal 5–1 SunderlandLeague Cup
- 16 May 2017Arsenal 2–0 SunderlandPremier League
- 29 October 2016Sunderland 1–4 ArsenalPremier League
Leading scorers: Sunderland and Arsenal
Sunderland
GoalsAssists
- B. Brobbey30
Arsenal
GoalsAssists
- B. Saka30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Arsenal won 2–0 at Sunderland. The model had made a win for Arsenal its most likely outcome, at 36%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Bruno Guimarães 58' for Arsenal, Bukayo Saka (penalty) 90+7' for Arsenal. Sent off: Reinildo Isnard Mandava (Sunderland) 90+6'.
How the call on Sunderland v Arsenal has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 30% / 31% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 33% / 31% / 36%: the biggest move is Sunderland's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Sunderland win33%▲ +3
- Draw31%=
- Arsenal win36%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.