Regular Season - 6 · 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

SK Beveren vs St. Truiden Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Freethiel Stadion, Beveren
Full time2 – 0

Final score: SK Beveren 2-0 St. Truiden.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% SK Beveren, 27% draw, 28% St. Truiden — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: SK Beveren 1.97, St. Truiden 1.27.

Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: SK Beveren vs St. Truiden

62%
Both teams to score
63%
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 10%2-1 10%2-0 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts SK Beveren at 45% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

SK Beveren99%Draw1%St. Truiden0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Chris Lokesa (pen)
52'
⚽Jearl Margarithaassist: Christian Bruls
55'
57'
🔁Ryotaro Arakiout: Nathanael Mbuku
🔁Moïse Elohim Victoire Kaboréout: Arno Verschueren
64'
69'
🔁Kaito Matsuzawaout: Oumar Diouf
69'
🔁Wolke Janssensout: Joedrick Pupe
🔁Chris Lokesaout: Ferre Slegers
79'
Christophe Janssens
84'
Ferre Slegers
86'
89'
🔁Ilias Sebaouiout: Shion Shinkawa

Match stats — SK Beveren vs St. Truiden

40%Possession60%
11Shots11
4On target0
1Corners4

Line-ups

SK Beveren 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. SchenkG
  • 21L. JansD
  • 35Y. GomisD
  • 31B. GodeauD
  • 4C. JanssensD
  • 18S. DewaeleM
  • 44C. CondeM
  • 5C. LokesaM
  • 22C. BrülsM
  • 17J. MargarithaM
  • 9M. KaboréF
Substitutes
  • 77S. KellerD
  • 34C. KonatéD
  • 14L. KuavitaM
  • 84J. LusambaG
  • 92L. MertensF
  • 48J. RobatschD
  • 8F. SlegersM
  • 2D. ThompsonD
  • 24A. VerschuerenM
Coach: T. Bakens
St. Truiden 4-2-3-1
  • 16L. KokuboG
  • 60R. VanwesemaelD
  • 22W. JanssensD
  • 26V. MusliuD
  • 3T. HataD
  • 14R. MerlenM
  • 8A. SissakoM
  • 38K. MatsuzawaM
  • 71R. ArakiM
  • 10I. SebaouiM
  • 9S. BaždarF
Substitutes
  • 4K. TakaiD
  • 99S. ShinkawaM
  • 23J. PupeD
  • 11N. MbukuF
  • 27Jeremy Kandje MbambiD
  • 21M. LendfersG
  • 18N. IshiwatariM
  • 33A. DirikenM
  • 77O. DioufF
Coach: F. De Meyer

Form going into SK Beveren vs St. Truiden

SK Beveren

  • W3-0OH Leuven6 September 2026
  • L0-4away to Genk28 August 2026
  • L0-4away to Zulte Waregem22 August 2026
  • W1-0Anderlecht16 August 2026

St. Truiden

  • W4-0RAAL La Louvière5 September 2026
  • L0-3Union St. Gilloise2 September 2026
  • W4-1away to Antwerp30 August 2026
  • D3-3away to Cercle Brugge14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8SK Beveren6303710-39
10St. Truiden62221210+28

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: SK Beveren vs St. Truiden

  • 12 September 2026SK Beveren 2–0 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
  • 6 April 2021SK Beveren 2–4 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
  • 28 November 2020St. Truiden 1–1 SK BeverenJupiler Pro League
  • 30 July 2020St. Truiden 4–1 SK BeverenFriendlies Clubs
  • 26 December 2019SK Beveren 1–0 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
  • 14 September 2019St. Truiden 1–1 SK BeverenJupiler Pro League

Leading scorers: SK Beveren and St. Truiden

SK Beveren

  • C. Lokesa3 goals

St. Truiden

  • S. Baždar4 goals
  • R. Merlen3 goals3 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.97 goals for SK Beveren and 1.27 for St. Truiden; the game produced 2 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Chris Lokesa 52' (SK Beveren), Jearl Margaritha 55' (SK Beveren).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives SK Beveren the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for SK Beveren against 1.27 for St. Truiden. SK Beveren's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/1.33 for St. Truiden.