Liverpool
vs
Fulham
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Liverpool 0-0 Fulham.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Liverpool, 28% draw, 22% Fulham — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: Liverpool 1.77, Fulham 0.83.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Liverpool vs Fulham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Liverpool at 50% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Liverpool vs Fulham
Line-ups
- 1Alisson BeckerG
- 33R. AraújoD
- 5J. JacquetD
- 4V. van DijkD
- 21K. TsimikasD
- 8D. SzoboszlaiM
- 38R. GravenberchM
- 23Víctor MuñozM
- 7F. WirtzM
- 29B. BarcolaM
- 9A. IsakF
- 73R. NgumohaF
- 42T. NyoniM
- 3W. EndoM
- 30J. FrimpongD
- 18C. GakpoF
- 6M. KerkezD
- 67L. KoumasF
- 10A. Mac AllisterM
- 25G. MamardashviliG
- 1B. LenoG
- 21T. CastagneD
- 22D. AffengruberD
- 3C. BasseyD
- 33A. RobinsonD
- 16S. BergeM
- 19S. CharlesM
- 14Oscar BobbM
- 24Joshua KingM
- 17A. IwobiM
- 7Gonzalo GarcíaF
- 11KevinF
- 15H. LarssonM
- 23B. LecomteG
- 20Manuel ÁngelM
- 8César PalaciosM
- 9Rodrigo MunizF
- 32E. Smith RoweM
- 2K. TeteD
- 5J. AndersenD
Form going into Liverpool vs Fulham
Liverpool
- W2-0away to Ipswich4 September 2026
- D2-2Nottingham Forest29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Newcastle23 August 2026
Fulham
- L2-3Crystal Palace5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sunderland30 August 2026
- L2-3Chelsea24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Liverpool | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 18 | Fulham | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Liverpool vs Fulham
- 12 September 2026Liverpool 0–0 FulhamPremier League
- 11 April 2026Liverpool 2–0 FulhamPremier League
- 4 January 2026Fulham 2–2 LiverpoolPremier League
- 6 April 2025Fulham 3–2 LiverpoolPremier League
- 14 December 2024Liverpool 2–2 FulhamPremier League
- 21 April 2024Fulham 1–3 LiverpoolPremier League
Leading scorers: Liverpool and Fulham
Liverpool
- A. Isak3 goals
Fulham
- Joshua King2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Liverpool carry a model rating of 7.08 against 6.86 for Fulham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Liverpool and 0.83 for Fulham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Liverpool rate 1.22 in attack and 0.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fulham rate 0.89 and 0.89.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Liverpool the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Liverpool against 0.83 for Fulham. Liverpool's attack/defence rating is 1.22/0.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/0.89 for Fulham.