KVC Westerlo
vs
Standard Liege
Jupiler Pro League prediction & result
Final score: KVC Westerlo 4-2 Standard Liege.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% KVC Westerlo, 24% draw, 23% Standard Liege — fair odds of 1.89, 4.17 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: KVC Westerlo 2.48, Standard Liege 1.23.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: KVC Westerlo vs Standard Liege
Has the model earned this number?
It puts KVC Westerlo at 53% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — KVC Westerlo vs Standard Liege
Line-ups
- 99A. JungdalG
- 2L. FløD
- 5S. KimuraD
- 4A. LapageD
- 28D. OuregaD
- 45I. FofanaM
- 14C. SandraM
- 20C. CongreveM
- 13I. SakamotoM
- 7S. SaitoM
- 9N. BassetteF
- 40B. BaloghD
- 11N. Bohamdi-KamoniF
- 26D. DionguM
- 88F. FerraroD
- 1B. LathouwersG
- 23L. Mbamba-MuandaD
- 10N. StormF
- 8S. SydorchukM
- 39T. Van den KeybusM
- 1M. EpoloG
- 13M. FosseyD
- 20I. KaramokoD
- 25I. HautekietD
- 7T. MohrD
- 94C. NielsenM
- 22A. TrouilletM
- 84R. TouzgharM
- 17Bernard NgueneF
- 10D. Eckert AyensaF
- 11A. AbidF
- 21L. PirardG
- 18H. LawrenceD
- 6L. GoemaereM
- 80R. FossoM
- 19S. JasperM
- 15S. DrammehM
- 29D. DierckxD
- 39Noah Abdoulaye SyM
- 77B. NsimbaF
Form going into KVC Westerlo vs Standard Liege
KVC Westerlo
- W4-0away to KV Mechelen5 September 2026
- D2-2Zulte Waregem30 August 2026
- L0-4away to Lommel United23 August 2026
- L2-3away to Genk15 August 2026
Standard Liege
- W1-0Antwerp5 September 2026
- W2-1away to OH Leuven29 August 2026
- W2-0RAAL La Louvière21 August 2026
- D3-3away to KV Mechelen16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | KVC Westerlo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 7 |
| 6 | Standard Liege | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: KVC Westerlo vs Standard Liege
- 12 September 2026KVC Westerlo 4–2 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 19 May 2026KVC Westerlo 1–2 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 11 April 2026Standard Liege 1–2 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
- 22 March 2026Standard Liege 0–0 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
- 21 September 2025KVC Westerlo 0–2 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 24 May 2025KVC Westerlo 0–0 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: KVC Westerlo and Standard Liege
KVC Westerlo
- S. Saito3 goals
- N. Bassette3 goals
Standard Liege
- D. Eckert Ayensa4 goals
- A. Abid3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.48 goals for KVC Westerlo and 1.23 for Standard Liege; the game produced 4 and 2.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Norman Bassette 12' (KVC Westerlo), Amando Lapage 56' (KVC Westerlo), Bruny Nsimba 66' (Standard Liege), Adnane Abid 71' (Standard Liege), Pape Daouda Diong 77' (KVC Westerlo), Thomas Van Den Keybus 90' (KVC Westerlo).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives KVC Westerlo the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.48 expected goals for KVC Westerlo against 1.23 for Standard Liege. KVC Westerlo's attack/defence rating is 1.13/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.35 for Standard Liege.