Tottenham
vs
Everton
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Tottenham 0-0 Everton.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Tottenham, 32% draw, 28% Everton — fair odds of 2.50, 3.13 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Tottenham 1.21, Everton 0.81.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Tottenham vs Everton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tottenham at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tottenham vs Everton
Line-ups
- 31A. KinskýG
- 14A. GrayD
- 6J. van HeckeD
- 37M. van de VenD
- 3A. RobertsonD
- 30R. BentancurM
- 16S. TonaliM
- 17SávioM
- 18Mateus FernandesM
- 22Omar MarmoushM
- 19D. SolankeF
- 10J. MaddisonM
- 15L. BergvallM
- 11M. TelF
- 20M. KudusM
- 39M. DúbravkaG
- 4T. AdarabioyoD
- 5M. SenesiD
- 33B. DaviesD
- 8C. GallagherM
- 1J. PickfordG
- 2A. Maitland-NilesD
- 6J. TarkowskiD
- 4J. BranthwaiteD
- 16V. MykolenkoD
- 45H. ArmstrongM
- 37J. GarnerM
- 22B. JohnsonM
- 8K. Dewsbury-HallM
- 19Tyrique GeorgeM
- 11T. BarryF
- 31T. KingG
- 5M. KeaneD
- 15J. O'BrienD
- 10J. GrealishM
- 20T. DiblingF
- 24C. AlcarazM
- 30H. HackneyM
- 12M. TraversG
- 58B. GrahamF
Form going into Tottenham vs Everton
Tottenham
- D0-0away to Nottingham Forest5 September 2026
- L0-2Newcastle29 August 2026
- L0-3away to Brentford22 August 2026
Everton
- D2-2Manchester United6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bournemouth29 August 2026
- W2-0Crystal Palace22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Tottenham | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 2 |
| 9 | Everton | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Tottenham vs Everton
- 12 September 2026Tottenham 0–0 EvertonPremier League
- 24 May 2026Tottenham 1–0 EvertonPremier League
- 26 October 2025Everton 0–3 TottenhamPremier League
- 19 January 2025Everton 3–2 TottenhamPremier League
- 24 August 2024Tottenham 4–0 EvertonPremier League
- 3 February 2024Everton 2–2 TottenhamPremier League
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Tottenham carry a model rating of 6.92 against 6.85 for Everton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Tottenham and 0.81 for Everton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Tottenham rate 0.82 in attack and 0.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Everton rate 0.90 and 0.91.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Everton, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Tottenham the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Tottenham against 0.81 for Everton. Tottenham's attack/defence rating is 0.82/0.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.9/0.91 for Everton.