Regular Season - 4 · 12 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Chelsea vs Hull City Premier League prediction & result

Stamford Bridge, London
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Chelsea 2-2 Hull City.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Chelsea, 27% draw, 27% Hull City — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Chelsea 2.00, Hull City 1.27.

Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Chelsea vs Hull City

63%
Both teams to score
63%
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 10%2-1 10%2-0 8%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Chelsea at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Chelsea5%Draw92%Hull City3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Morgan Rogersassist: João Pedro
7'
17'
Oliver McBurnie
28'
⚽Mohamed Belloumiassist: Ryan Giles
34'
⚽Mohamed Belloumiassist: Oliver McBurnie
🔁Jorrel Hatoout: Pep Chavarria
45'
50'
John Egan
52'
Matt Crooks
59'
🔁Nobel Mendyout: Lucas Herrington
60'
🔁Mohamed Belloumiout: Mohamed Ali Cho
60'
🔁Elliot Stroudout: Sorba Thomas
⚽João Pedroassist: Cole Palmer
66'
69'
🔁Matt Crooksout: Tim Iroegbunam
🔁Romeo Laviaout: Valentin Barco
70'
🔁Malo Gustoout: Danny Welbeck
78'
Valentin Barco
80'
82'
🔁Oliver McBurnieout: Robinio Vaz
82'
🔁Lewie Coyleout: Brooke Norton-Cuffy
🔁Pedro Netoout: Estêvão Willian Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves
86'
🔁Wesley Fofanaout: Maxence Lacroix
86'
88'
Tim Iroegbunam
90+6'
Brooke Norton-Cuffy

Match stats — Chelsea vs Hull City

68%Possession32%
12Shots14
7On target5
11Corners4

Line-ups

Chelsea 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. MartínezG
  • 3W. FofanaD
  • 6L. ColwillD
  • 21J. HatoD
  • 7Pedro NetoM
  • 24R. JamesM
  • 45R. LaviaM
  • 27M. GustoM
  • 10C. PalmerM
  • 17M. RogersM
  • 9João PedroF
Substitutes
  • 11J. Bynoe-GittensF
  • 5M. LacroixD
  • 18D. WelbeckF
  • 23Geovany Tcherno QuendaM
  • 39M. PendersG
  • 29Pep ChavarríaD
  • 34Joshua Kofi AcheampongD
  • 4V. BarcoM
  • 41EstêvãoF
Coach: Xabi Alonso
Hull City 5-4-1
  • 19K. TzolakisG
  • 2L. CoyleD
  • 6S. AjayiD
  • 15J. EganD
  • 32N. MendyD
  • 3R. GilesD
  • 10M. BelloumiM
  • 25M. CrooksM
  • 27R. SlaterM
  • 21E. StroudM
  • 9O. McBurnieF
Substitutes
  • 23M. TargettD
  • 7S. ThomasF
  • 18B. Norton-CuffyD
  • 29L. Gourna-DouathM
  • 42T. IroegbunamM
  • 47R. VazF
  • 22L. HerringtonD
  • 50M. ChoF
  • 12D. PhillipsG
Coach: S. Jakirović

Form going into Chelsea vs Hull City

Chelsea

  • L1-2away to Arsenal6 September 2026
  • W4-3Brighton30 August 2026
  • W3-2away to Fulham24 August 2026

Hull City

  • D0-0Aston Villa5 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Coventry29 August 2026
  • W2-0Manchester United22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Chelsea4211109+17
4Hull City422052+38

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Chelsea vs Hull City

  • 12 September 2026Chelsea 2–2 Hull CityPremier League
  • 13 February 2026Hull City 0–4 ChelseaFA Cup
  • 25 January 2020Hull City 1–2 ChelseaFA Cup
  • 16 February 2018Chelsea 4–0 Hull CityFA Cup
  • 22 January 2017Chelsea 2–0 Hull CityPremier League
  • 1 October 2016Hull City 0–2 ChelseaPremier League

Leading scorers: Chelsea and Hull City

Chelsea

  • João Pedro3 goals3 assists
  • M. Rogers3 goals1 assists
  • C. Palmer2 goals2 assists

Hull City

  • M. Belloumi2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 2.00 goals for Chelsea and 1.27 for Hull City; the game produced 2 and 2.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Morgan Rogers 7' (Chelsea), Mohamed Belloumi 28' (Hull City), Mohamed Belloumi 34' (Hull City), João Pedro 66' (Chelsea).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Chelsea the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2 expected goals for Chelsea against 1.27 for Hull City. Chelsea's attack/defence rating is 1.38/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/0.89 for Hull City.