Chelsea vs Hull City Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Chelsea 2-2 Hull City.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Chelsea, 29% draw, 26% Hull City — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chelsea at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chelsea vs Hull City
Line-ups
- 1E. MartínezG
- 3W. FofanaD
- 6L. ColwillD
- 21J. HatoD
- 7Pedro NetoM
- 24R. JamesM
- 45R. LaviaM
- 27M. GustoM
- 10C. PalmerM
- 17M. RogersM
- 9João PedroF
- 11J. Bynoe-GittensF
- 5M. LacroixD
- 18D. WelbeckF
- 23Geovany Tcherno QuendaM
- 39M. PendersG
- 29Pep ChavarríaD
- 34Joshua Kofi AcheampongD
- 4V. BarcoM
- 41EstêvãoF
- 19K. TzolakisG
- 2L. CoyleD
- 6S. AjayiD
- 15J. EganD
- 32N. MendyD
- 3R. GilesD
- 10M. BelloumiM
- 25M. CrooksM
- 27R. SlaterM
- 21E. StroudM
- 9O. McBurnieF
- 23M. TargettD
- 7S. ThomasF
- 18B. Norton-CuffyD
- 29L. Gourna-DouathM
- 42T. IroegbunamM
- 47R. VazF
- 22L. HerringtonD
- 50M. ChoF
- 12D. PhillipsG
Form going into Chelsea vs Hull City
Chelsea
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Arsenal6 September 2026
- W4-3Brighton30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Fulham24 August 2026
Hull City
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Aston Villa5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Coventry29 August 2026
- W2-0Manchester United22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Chelsea | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 13 |
| 10 | Hull City | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chelsea vs Hull City
- 13 February 2026Hull City 0–4 ChelseaFA Cup
- 25 January 2020Hull City 1–2 ChelseaFA Cup
- 16 February 2018Chelsea 4–0 Hull CityFA Cup
- 22 January 2017Chelsea 2–0 Hull CityPremier League
- 1 October 2016Hull City 0–2 ChelseaPremier League
Leading scorers: Chelsea and Hull City
Chelsea
GoalsAssists
- João Pedro53
- M. Rogers41
- Pedro Neto31
Hull City
GoalsAssists
- M. Belloumi32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Chelsea and Hull City drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Chelsea at 45% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Morgan Rogers 7' for Chelsea, Mohamed Belloumi 28' for Hull City, Mohamed Belloumi 34' for Hull City, João Pedro 66' for Chelsea.
How the call on Chelsea v Hull City has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 43% / 28% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 45% / 29% / 26%: the biggest move is Hull City's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Chelsea win45%▲ +2
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Hull City win26%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.