Crystal Palace
vs
Ipswich
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Crystal Palace 2-3 Ipswich.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Crystal Palace, 27% draw, 29% Ipswich — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Crystal Palace 1.97, Ipswich 1.36.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Crystal Palace vs Ipswich
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Crystal Palace at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Crystal Palace vs Ipswich
Line-ups
- 44W. BenítezG
- 26C. RichardsD
- 5A. DisasiD
- 21H. AhanorD
- 25A. KhalailiM
- 23Q. TimberM
- 20A. WhartonM
- 3T. MitchellM
- 18D. KamadaM
- 10Yeremy PinoM
- 22J. Strand LarsenF
- 11D. McNeilF
- 19W. HughesM
- 31R. MatthewsG
- 17T. TomiyasuD
- 33B. ChilwellD
- 30Óscar MinguezaD
- 28C. DoucouréM
- 8J. LermaM
- 12Z. GozoF
- 37K. ScherpenG
- 26D. O'SheaD
- 6I. DiopD
- 24J. GreavesD
- 3L. DavisD
- 23S. LukićM
- 25E. PalaciosM
- 7A. FatawuM
- 10J. EncisoM
- 47J. ClarkeM
- 19EmersonnF
- 11J. PhilogeneF
- 28C. WaltonG
- 4C. KipréD
- 42A. OuattaraD
- 12FlorentinoM
- 32M. NúñezM
- 38D. MaedaF
- 9Z. FlemmingF
- 29C. AkpomF
Form going into Crystal Palace vs Ipswich
Crystal Palace
- W3-2away to Fulham5 September 2026
- L1-4Manchester City28 August 2026
- L0-2away to Everton22 August 2026
Ipswich
- L0-2Liverpool4 September 2026
- L2-5away to Manchester United30 August 2026
- W2-1Sunderland22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Crystal Palace vs Ipswich
- 12 September 2026Crystal Palace 2–3 IpswichPremier League
- 8 March 2025Crystal Palace 1–0 IpswichPremier League
- 3 December 2024Ipswich 0–1 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 16 July 2022Crystal Palace 4–2 IpswichFriendlies Clubs
- 24 July 2021Ipswich 0–1 Crystal PalaceFriendlies Clubs
- 22 August 2017Crystal Palace 2–1 IpswichLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Crystal Palace and Ipswich
Crystal Palace
- T. Mitchell2 goals
Ipswich
- Emersonn2 goals1 assists
- L. Davis2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.97 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.36 for Ipswich; the game produced 2 and 3.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Anan Khalaili 14' (Crystal Palace), Emersonn 23' (Ipswich), Leif Davis 45' (Ipswich), Jörgen Strand Larsen 75' (Crystal Palace), Zian Flemming 90' (Ipswich).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Crystal Palace the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Crystal Palace against 1.36 for Ipswich. Crystal Palace's attack/defence rating is 1.26/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/0.96 for Ipswich.