Alanyaspor
vs
Trabzonspor
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Alanyaspor 0–1 Trabzonspor
The model makes it 25% Alanyaspor, 27% draw, 48% Trabzonspor — fair odds of 4.00, 3.70 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Alanyaspor 1.01, Trabzonspor 1.61.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
One-sided: Trabzonspor are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Alanyaspor's rating is built from 43 Süper Lig matches and Trabzonspor's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 724 matches.
Key facts
- Alanyaspor are 10th on 12 points from 9 games; Trabzonspor are 4th on 16 points from 8 games — Süper Lig.
- Alanyaspor are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Kocaelispor.
- Trabzonspor are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Beşiktaş.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 April 2026, ended Alanyaspor 1–1 Trabzonspor.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Trabzonspor at 48% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor
Alanyaspor
Süper Lig
- L1-2Kocaelispor23 October 2026
- L0-3away to Fenerbahçe17 October 2026
- D0-0Erzurumspor FK10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Çorum FK19 September 2026
- D2-2Göztepe12 September 2026
Trabzonspor
Süper Lig
- W2-0Beşiktaş19 October 2026
- W3-0away to Samsunspor10 October 2026
- W4-0Galatasaray19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Konyaspor12 September 2026
- W5-0Gençlerbirliği S.K.6 September 2026
What these results say
- Alanyaspor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Alanyaspor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Alanyaspor had three goals or more.
- Trabzonspor won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Trabzonspor scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Trabzonspor kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Alanyaspor | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 12 |
| 4 | Trabzonspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor
- 11 April 2026Alanyaspor 1–1 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
- 17 December 2025Trabzonspor 0–1 AlanyasporTürkiye Kupası
- 8 November 2025Trabzonspor 1–1 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 27 April 2025Trabzonspor 4–3 AlanyasporSüper Lig
- 8 January 2025Trabzonspor 3–0 AlanyasporTürkiye Kupası
- 30 November 2024Alanyaspor 2–1 TrabzonsporSüper Lig
Leading scorers: Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor
Alanyaspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Trabzonspor
GoalsAssists
- Mohamed Salah83
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Alanyaspor carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.95 for Trabzonspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.01 goals for Alanyaspor and 1.61 for Trabzonspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Alanyaspor rate 0.69 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Trabzonspor rate 1.09 and 0.89.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Alanyaspor a 0% chance of the title and Trabzonspor 17%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Trabzonspor the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Alanyaspor against 1.61 for Trabzonspor. Alanyaspor's attack/defence rating is 0.69/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.09/0.89 for Trabzonspor.
How the model reaches 48% for Trabzonspor to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Trabzonspor to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Alanyaspor's ratings add 12 points and Trabzonspor's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage31%−5
- Alanyaspor's ratings43%+12
- Trabzonspor's ratings48%+5
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Alanyaspor at home · Trabzonspor away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AlanyasporTrabzonspor
Alanyaspor are 10th after 9 Süper Lig matches (between 3rd and 9th so far); Trabzonspor are 4th after 8 (between 3rd and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Alanyaspor 9, Trabzonspor 8.
Alanyaspor score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Trabzonspor have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Alanyaspor
- at Kasımpaşa22 Nov · Süper Ligwin 27%
- vs Konyaspor27 Nov · Süper Ligwin 41%
- at Amed5 Dec · Süper Ligwin 19%
- vs Samsunspor12 Dec · Süper Ligwin 49%
Trabzonspor
- vs Eyüpspor22 Nov · Süper Ligwin 78%
- at CSKA Sofia26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.