Sturm Graz
vs
Red Bull Salzburg
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Sturm Graz 1–0 Red Bull Salzburg
The model makes it 37% Sturm Graz, 29% draw, 34% Red Bull Salzburg — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sturm Graz 1.29, Red Bull Salzburg 1.22.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,017 settled matches.
A tight game: Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Sturm Graz's rating is built from 41 Austrian Bundesliga matches and Red Bull Salzburg's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 448 matches.
Key facts
- Sturm Graz are 4th on 17 points from 9 games; Red Bull Salzburg are 2nd on 21 points from 9 games — Bundesliga.
- Sturm Graz have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 6-1 win at home to Grazer AK.
- Red Bull Salzburg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to SCR Altach.
- Last 6 meetings: Sturm Graz 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 20 September 2026, ended Red Bull Salzburg 3–0 Sturm Graz.
More Austrian Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sturm Graz at 37% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 3,676 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg
Sturm Graz
Bundesliga
- W6-1Grazer AK18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Austria Vienna10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Red Bull Salzburg20 September 2026
- W2-1Lask Linz13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Rapid Vienna30 August 2026
Red Bull Salzburg
Bundesliga
- W3-0SCR Altach18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Grazer AK10 October 2026
- W3-0Sturm Graz20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Ried11 September 2026
- W5-1Rapid Vienna2 September 2026
What these results say
- Sturm Graz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sturm Graz conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sturm Graz had three goals or more.
- Red Bull Salzburg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Red Bull Salzburg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 17 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg
- 20 September 2026Red Bull Salzburg 3–0 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 3 May 2026Red Bull Salzburg 1–1 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 20 March 2026Sturm Graz 1–1 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 9 November 2025Sturm Graz 1–1 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
- 20 September 2025Red Bull Salzburg 0–2 Sturm GrazBundesliga
- 9 May 2025Sturm Graz 4–2 Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga
Leading scorers: Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg
Sturm Graz
GoalsAssists
- O. Diakité60
Red Bull Salzburg
GoalsAssists
- H. Tabaković40
- K. Konaté40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sturm Graz carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.8 for Red Bull Salzburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.22 for Red Bull Salzburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sturm Graz rate 0.81 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Red Bull Salzburg rate 0.87 and 0.97.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Red Bull Salzburg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sturm Graz a 5.2% chance of the title and Red Bull Salzburg 24.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sturm Graz the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Sturm Graz against 1.22 for Red Bull Salzburg. Sturm Graz's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.87/0.97 for Red Bull Salzburg.
How the model reaches 37% for Sturm Graz to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Sturm Graz to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Sturm Graz's ratings take away 8 points and Red Bull Salzburg's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Sturm Graz's ratings35%−8
- Red Bull Salzburg's ratings37%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sturm Graz at home · Red Bull Salzburg away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Sturm GrazRed Bull Salzburg
Sturm Graz are 4th after 9 Bundesliga matches (between 1st and 4th so far); Red Bull Salzburg are 2nd after 9 (between 2nd and 4th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Sturm Graz 9, Red Bull Salzburg 9.
Sturm Graz score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Red Bull Salzburg have let in 2 there.
Red Bull Salzburg score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Sturm Graz have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Sturm Graz
- at SCR Altach22 Nov · Bundesligawin 50%
- at 1899 Hoffenheim26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 25%
Red Bull Salzburg
- at Austria Vienna22 Nov · Bundesligawin 54%
- vs Ararat-Armenia26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 76%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.