Grazer AK
vs
TSV Hartberg
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Grazer AK 1–2 TSV Hartberg
The model makes it 36% Grazer AK, 27% draw, 37% TSV Hartberg — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Grazer AK 1.44, TSV Hartberg 1.45.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Grazer AK are 7th on 9 points from 8 games; TSV Hartberg are 6th on 11 points from 8 games — Bundesliga.
- Grazer AK are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Red Bull Salzburg.
- TSV Hartberg are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 4-3 win at home to Austria Lustenau.
- Last 6 meetings: TSV Hartberg 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended TSV Hartberg 1–0 Grazer AK.
More Austrian Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts TSV Hartberg at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg
Grazer AK
- D0-0Red Bull Salzburg10 October 2026
- D2-2Austria Vienna19 September 2026
- W2-1away to SCR Altach12 September 2026
- D0-0Wolfsberger AC29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Ried21 August 2026
TSV Hartberg
- W4-3Austria Lustenau11 October 2026
- D3-3Lask Linz20 September 2026
- D2-2away to WSG Wattens13 September 2026
- W3-2Ried30 August 2026
- W2-1away to SCR Altach22 August 2026
What these results say
- Grazer AK failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- TSV Hartberg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- TSV Hartberg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- TSV Hartberg conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 9 |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg
- 21 February 2026TSV Hartberg 1–0 Grazer AKBundesliga
- 18 October 2025Grazer AK 0–0 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 25 April 2025TSV Hartberg 1–1 Grazer AKBundesliga
- 22 April 2025Grazer AK 0–3 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 8 December 2024Grazer AK 0–3 TSV HartbergBundesliga
- 31 August 2024TSV Hartberg 1–1 Grazer AKBundesliga
Leading scorers: Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg
Grazer AK
GoalsAssists
- A. Hofleitner30
TSV Hartberg
GoalsAssists
- C. Hoffmann31
- M. Hoffman30
- A. Radulović22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Grazer AK carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.42 for TSV Hartberg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Grazer AK and 1.45 for TSV Hartberg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Grazer AK rate 0.54 in attack and 1.62 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; TSV Hartberg rate 0.69 and 1.65.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Grazer AK a 0% chance of the title and TSV Hartberg 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives TSV Hartberg the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Grazer AK against 1.45 for TSV Hartberg. Grazer AK's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.62 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.65 for TSV Hartberg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Grazer AK at home · TSV Hartberg away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Grazer AKTSV Hartberg
Grazer AK are 5th after 8 Bundesliga matches (between 5th and 12th so far); TSV Hartberg are 6th after 8 (between 5th and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Grazer AK 8, TSV Hartberg 8.
Grazer AK score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); TSV Hartberg have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Grazer AK
- at Austria Lustenau7 Nov · Bundesligawin 32%
- vs Rapid Vienna21 Nov · Bundesligawin 22%
- vs SCR Altach27 Nov · Bundesligawin 41%
TSV Hartberg
- vs SCR Altach8 Nov · Bundesligawin 48%
- at Lask Linz21 Nov · Bundesligawin 20%
- at Ried29 Nov · Bundesligawin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.