SCR Altach
vs
Ried
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: SCR Altach 1–0 Ried
The model makes it 37% SCR Altach, 29% draw, 34% Ried — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: SCR Altach 1.26, Ried 1.20.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: SCR Altach and Ried are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- SCR Altach are 11th on 6 points from 8 games; Ried are 5th on 11 points from 8 games — Bundesliga.
- SCR Altach have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Wolfsberger AC.
- Ried are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to WSG Wattens.
- Last 6 meetings: SCR Altach 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended SCR Altach 2–0 Ried.
More Austrian Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SCR Altach vs Ried
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SCR Altach at 37% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into SCR Altach vs Ried
SCR Altach
- W3-0Wolfsberger AC11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Austria Lustenau19 September 2026
- L1-2Grazer AK12 September 2026
- L0-3away to Lask Linz29 August 2026
- L1-2TSV Hartberg22 August 2026
Ried
- W2-1away to WSG Wattens10 October 2026
- W4-1Wolfsberger AC20 September 2026
- D1-1Red Bull Salzburg11 September 2026
- L2-3away to TSV Hartberg30 August 2026
- W1-0Grazer AK21 August 2026
What these results say
- SCR Altach failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- SCR Altach conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for SCR Altach had three goals or more.
- Ried scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ried conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Ried.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | SCR Altach | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 6 |
| 5 | Ried | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
SCR Altach
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 46% today
Ried
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: SCR Altach vs Ried
- 16 May 2026SCR Altach 2–0 RiedBundesliga
- 3 April 2026Ried 3–2 SCR AltachBundesliga
- 13 December 2025Ried 3–0 SCR AltachBundesliga
- 9 August 2025SCR Altach 1–0 RiedBundesliga
- 19 May 2023Ried 0–1 SCR AltachBundesliga
- 22 April 2023SCR Altach 1–1 RiedBundesliga
Leading scorers: SCR Altach and Ried
SCR Altach
GoalsAssists
- O. Diawara30
Ried
GoalsAssists
- S. Schwab31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
SCR Altach carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.39 for Ried. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for SCR Altach and 1.20 for Ried. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SCR Altach rate 0.51 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ried rate 0.61 and 1.53.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Ried, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SCR Altach the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for SCR Altach against 1.20 for Ried. SCR Altach's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.53 for Ried.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SCR Altach at home · Ried away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: SCR Altach 8, Ried 8.
SCR Altach score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Ried have let in 1 there.
Ried score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); SCR Altach have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
SCR Altach
- at TSV Hartberg8 Nov · Bundesligawin 26%
- vs Sturm Graz22 Nov · Bundesligawin 25%
- at Grazer AK27 Nov · Bundesligawin 30%
Ried
- vs Lask Linz7 Nov · Bundesligawin 26%
- at Wolfsberger AC22 Nov · Bundesligawin 38%
- vs TSV Hartberg29 Nov · Bundesligawin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.