Stoke City
vs
Millwall
Championship prediction
Our model says: Stoke City 1–0 Millwall
The model makes it 43% Stoke City, 28% draw, 29% Millwall — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Stoke City 1.50, Millwall 1.13.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,919 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Stoke City's rating is built from 61 Championship matches and Millwall's from 63, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,294 matches.
Key facts
- Stoke City are 3rd on 29 points from 15 games; Millwall are 16th on 18 points from 15 games — Championship.
- Stoke City are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Portsmouth.
- Millwall have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to West Brom.
- Last 6 meetings: Millwall 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 21 April 2026, ended Stoke City 1–3 Millwall.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stoke City vs Millwall
Has the model earned this number?
Stoke City at 43%: of 2,924 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.0% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Stoke City vs Millwall
Stoke City
Championship
- W2-1away to Portsmouth7 November 2026
- W2-1away to Blackburn3 November 2026
- W2-0Preston31 October 2026
- D0-0Bristol City24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Derby17 October 2026
Millwall
Championship
- L0-3away to West Brom7 November 2026
- L0-3away to Birmingham3 November 2026
- W4-1Derby31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Portsmouth24 October 2026
- D2-2Lincoln17 October 2026
What these results say
- Stoke City went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Stoke City won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stoke City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Millwall conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Millwall had three goals or more.
- Millwall failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 29 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Stoke City
Chance to finish in the top two · 9% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Millwall vs Stoke City
Millwall and Stoke City have met 6 times in the records we hold, Millwall has won 4 of them to Stoke City's 0, with 2 drawn.
The record
Millwall won the last one 3–1 on 21 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 2 |
| Stoke City | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 10 goals, an average of 1.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 21 Apr 2026
ChampionshipStoke City 1–3 Millwall - 21 Oct 2025
ChampionshipMillwall 2–0 Stoke City - 15 Mar 2025
ChampionshipMillwall 1–0 Stoke City - 9 Nov 2024
ChampionshipStoke City 1–1 Millwall - 23 Dec 2023
ChampionshipStoke City 0–0 Millwall - 26 Aug 2023
ChampionshipMillwall 1–0 Stoke City
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Millwall's attack rates 6% above Stoke City's, and Stoke City concede 9% fewer than Millwall. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall | 0.76 | 1.37 |
| Stoke City | 0.72 | 1.24 |
Leading scorers: Stoke City and Millwall
Stoke City
GoalsAssists
- J. McGlynn52
Millwall
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 23 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stoke City a 3.5% chance of the title and Millwall 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stoke City the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Stoke City against 1.13 for Millwall. Stoke City's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.37 for Millwall.
How the model reaches 43% for Stoke City to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Stoke City to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Stoke City's ratings change nothing and Millwall's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Stoke City's ratings42%±0
- Millwall's ratings43%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Stoke City at home · Millwall away
League matches only, Championship, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Stoke CityMillwall
Stoke City are 3rd after 15 Championship matches (between 1st and 23rd so far); Millwall are 16th after 15 (between 1st and 16th). Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Stoke City 15, Millwall 15.
Stoke City score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Millwall have let in 3 there.
Millwall score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Stoke City have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Stoke City
- at West Ham28 Nov · Championshipwin 24%
- vs QPR5 Dec · Championshipwin 43%
- at Lincoln9 Dec · Championshipwin 38%
- vs West Brom12 Dec · Championshipwin 37%
Millwall
- vs Burnley28 Nov · Championshipwin 52%
- at Watford5 Dec · Championshipwin 39%
- vs Sheffield Utd8 Dec · Championshipwin 42%
- at Wolves12 Dec · Championshipwin 24%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.