Start
vs
Fredrikstad
The model makes it 51% Start, 25% draw, 24% Fredrikstad — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Start 1.70, Fredrikstad 1.08.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Start
- L0-3Viking1 August 2026
- W2-1away to Kristiansund BK25 July 2026
- L0-3Rosenborg18 July 2026
- L1-2away to Brann12 July 2026
- L1-2away to Fredrikstad29 May 2026
Fredrikstad
- W1-0Sandefjord1 August 2026
- L0-4away to Rosenborg27 July 2026
- L0-1away to Bodo/Glimt17 July 2026
- L0-2Lillestrom11 July 2026
- W2-1Start29 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Start | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 37 | -21 | 10 |
| 11 | Fredrikstad | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Start vs Fredrikstad
- 29 May 2026Fredrikstad 2–1 StartEliteserien
- 3 September 2023Start 2–2 Fredrikstad1. Division
- 11 June 2023Fredrikstad 3–1 Start1. Division
- 31 July 2022Start 1–0 Fredrikstad1. Division
- 18 April 2022Fredrikstad 1–0 Start1. Division
- 26 September 2021Start 2–6 Fredrikstad1. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Start carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.41 for Fredrikstad. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Start L-L-L-W-L; Fredrikstad W-L-L-L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for Start and 1.08 for Fredrikstad. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Start rate 0.66 in attack and 1.40 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fredrikstad rate 0.55 and 1.36.
That points to 52% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Fredrikstad, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Start the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.7 expected goals for Start against 1.08 for Fredrikstad. Start's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.4 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.36 for Fredrikstad.