Start vs Fredrikstad Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Start 0-1 Fredrikstad.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Start, 25% draw, 24% Fredrikstad — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Start at 51%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Start vs Fredrikstad
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 45Filip ManojlovićG
- 29Erlend Dahl ReitanD
- 28Jens Berland HusebøD
- 6John Olav NorheimD
- 27Ousmane Diallo ToureM
- 20Hakon LorentzenM
- 23Erlend SegbergM
- 11Eirik SchulzeM
- 16Tom StrannegårdM
- 17Jesper CorneliusF
- 22James AmpofoF
- 12Deni DashaevD
- 3Altin UjkaniD
- 18Mikael UglandM
- 2Fredrik PalerudD
- 35Santino SamuyiwaM
- 1Jacob PrytsG
- 4Johan MeyerD
- 14Markus SoometsM
- 30Lukas Hjelleset GausdalM
- 77Martin BorsheimG
- 16Daniel EidD
- 38Isak Helstad AmundsenD
- 4Fredrik HolméD
- 12Ulrik FredriksenD
- 19Fanuel Ghebreyohannes Yrga-AlemD
- 29Gabriel WessehM
- 6Samuel Leach HolmM
- 14Max NilssonM
- 20Oskar ØhlenschlaegerM
- 23Henrik Langaas SkogvoldF
- 5Simen RafnD
- 7Benjamin FaraasM
- 9Salim LaghzaouiM
- 28Solomon OwusuD
- 1Oystein OvretveitG
- 18Jonathan NorbyeD
- 21Jakub JezierskiM
- 24Leonard OwusuM
- 10Johannes NúñezF
Form going into Start vs Fredrikstad
Start
All competitions we cover
- L0-3Viking1 August 2026
- W2-1away to Kristiansund BK25 July 2026
- L0-3Rosenborg18 July 2026
Fredrikstad
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Sandefjord1 August 2026
- L0-4away to Rosenborg27 July 2026
- L0-1away to Bodo/Glimt17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Start | 26 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 27 | 59 | -32 | 19 |
| 12 | Fredrikstad | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Start vs Fredrikstad
- 29 May 2026Fredrikstad 2–1 StartEliteserien
- 3 September 2023Start 2–2 Fredrikstad1. Division
- 11 June 2023Fredrikstad 3–1 Start1. Division
- 31 July 2022Start 1–0 Fredrikstad1. Division
- 18 April 2022Fredrikstad 1–0 Start1. Division
The result against the call
Fredrikstad won 1–0 at Start. The model had leaned towards a win for Start at 51% and given a win for Fredrikstad 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Gabriel Wesseh 29' for Fredrikstad. On expected goals it finished 1.77–1.57.