Ham-Kam
vs
Aalesund
The model makes it 46% Ham-Kam, 21% draw, 33% Aalesund — fair odds of 2.17, 4.76 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Ham-Kam 2.21, Aalesund 1.85.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 77%, under 2.5: 23%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Ham-Kam
- W3-0away to Valerenga31 July 2026
- L0-1away to Sarpsborg 08 FF26 July 2026
- L0-3away to Bodo/Glimt22 July 2026
- L1-4Tromso18 July 2026
- D2-2away to Sandefjord12 July 2026
Aalesund
- L2-6Tromso2 August 2026
- D1-1Viking26 July 2026
- L1-6away to Valerenga16 July 2026
- D2-2Molde11 July 2026
- D2-2Ham-Kam29 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Ham-Kam | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 21 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Ham-Kam vs Aalesund
- 29 May 2026Aalesund 2–2 Ham-KamEliteserien
- 20 May 2025Aalesund 2–2 Ham-KamNM Cupen
- 13 August 2023Aalesund 0–2 Ham-KamEliteserien
- 7 July 2023Ham-Kam 2–1 AalesundEliteserien
- 17 March 2023Aalesund 3–1 Ham-KamFriendlies Clubs
- 16 October 2022Aalesund 0–0 Ham-KamEliteserien
Leading scorers
Ham-Kam
- M. Niang6 goals
Aalesund
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Ham-Kam carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.48 for Aalesund. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Ham-Kam D-L-L-L-W; Aalesund D-D-L-D-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.21 goals for Ham-Kam and 1.85 for Aalesund. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ham-Kam rate 0.66 in attack and 1.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aalesund rate 0.81 and 1.77.
That points to 77% for over two and a half goals and 75% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ham-Kam the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Ham-Kam against 1.85 for Aalesund. Ham-Kam's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.77 for Aalesund.