Ham-Kam vs Aalesund Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Ham-Kam 1-1 Aalesund.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Ham-Kam, 21% draw, 33% Aalesund — fair odds of 2.17, 4.76 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Ham-Kam at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ham-Kam vs Aalesund
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Marcus SandbergG
- 26Patrick MetcalfeD
- 2Martin GjoneD
- 23Fredrik SjolstadD
- 3Ethan Amundsen-DayD
- 7Viðar Ari JónssonD
- 17Aksel Baran PoturM
- 14Luc MaresM
- 8Markus JohnsgardM
- 29Blerton IsufiF
- 28David BenjaminF
- 16Anders TrondsenM
- 19Henrik UdahlF
- 6William Osnes-RingenM
- 22Snorre Strand NilsenD
- 24Danilo Al-SaedF
- 13Sander ØstraatG
- 5Aleksander AndresenD
- 10Loris MettlerM
- 20Julian Bakkeli GonstadF
- 1Luca PodlechG
- 14Uba CharlesD
- 4Simen HaramD
- 45Philip Sandvik AuklandD
- 3Ólafur GuðmundssonD
- 7Kristoffer NessøD
- 21Mathias ChristensenM
- 18Elias Kristoffersen HagenM
- 15Endre Hjertager OsenbrochM
- 39Kristian LonebuF
- 27Marcus Haagensen ReedF
- 22Emil EngqvistD
- 6Hakon Butli HammerM
- 17Elias Heggland MyrlidF
- 20Ivan DjantouF
- 26Tor Erik LarsenG
- 2Marius AndresenD
- 16Jakob Nyland ÖrsahlD
- 10Mathias KristensenM
Form going into Ham-Kam vs Aalesund
Ham-Kam
All competitions we cover
- W3-0away to Valerenga31 July 2026
- L0-1away to Sarpsborg 08 FF26 July 2026
- L0-3away to Bodo/Glimt22 July 2026
- L1-4Tromso18 July 2026
Aalesund
All competitions we cover
- L2-6Tromso2 August 2026
- D1-1Viking26 July 2026
What these results say
- Ham-Kam failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Ham-Kam conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Ham-Kam had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Ham-Kam | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 38 | 53 | -15 | 30 |
| 15 | Aalesund | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 45 | 60 | -15 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ham-Kam vs Aalesund
- 29 May 2026Aalesund 2–2 Ham-KamEliteserien
- 20 May 2025Aalesund 2–2 Ham-KamNM Cupen
- 13 August 2023Aalesund 0–2 Ham-KamEliteserien
- 7 July 2023Ham-Kam 2–1 AalesundEliteserien
- 17 March 2023Aalesund 3–1 Ham-KamFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Ham-Kam and Aalesund
Ham-Kam
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 38 league goals as a side.
Aalesund
GoalsAssists
- M. Christensen116
- H. M. Reed83
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ham-Kam and Aalesund drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Ham-Kam at 46% and given a draw 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Endre Hjertager Osenbroch 45+1' for Aalesund, Martin Gjone 55' for Ham-Kam. On expected goals it finished 1.67–0.63.