Valerenga
vs
Bodo/Glimt
The model makes it 20% Valerenga, 21% draw, 59% Bodo/Glimt — fair odds of 5.00, 4.76 and 1.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Valerenga 1.27, Bodo/Glimt 2.24.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Valerenga
- L0-3Ham-Kam31 July 2026
- W3-2away to Brann26 July 2026
- W6-1Aalesund16 July 2026
- L0-4away to Tromso11 July 2026
- W3-1Kristiansund BK29 May 2026
Bodo/Glimt
- W4-0Lillestrom31 July 2026
- W3-0away to Sandefjord26 July 2026
- W3-0Ham-Kam22 July 2026
- W1-0Fredrikstad17 July 2026
- W2-0away to KFUM Oslo12 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Valerenga | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 20 |
| 1 | Bodo/Glimt | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 11 | +30 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt
- 1 November 2025Valerenga 3–1 Bodo/GlimtEliteserien
- 26 July 2025Bodo/Glimt 7–2 ValerengaEliteserien
- 28 September 2023Valerenga 2–4 Bodo/GlimtNM Cupen
- 24 September 2023Bodo/Glimt 4–2 ValerengaEliteserien
- 4 June 2023Valerenga 1–3 Bodo/GlimtEliteserien
- 16 October 2022Valerenga 0–6 Bodo/GlimtEliteserien
Leading scorers
Valerenga
- L. Haren6 goals1 assists
Bodo/Glimt
- K. Høgh7 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Valerenga carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.86 for Bodo/Glimt. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Valerenga W-L-W-W-L; Bodo/Glimt W-W-W-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.27 goals for Valerenga and 2.24 for Bodo/Glimt. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Valerenga rate 0.72 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bodo/Glimt rate 0.94 and 0.93.
That points to 68% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 0-2 (8%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Valerenga a 0% chance of the title and Bodo/Glimt 63.7%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bodo/Glimt the highest probability at 59%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Valerenga against 2.24 for Bodo/Glimt. Valerenga's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/0.93 for Bodo/Glimt.