SV Darmstadt 98
vs
Holstein Kiel
The model makes it 61% SV Darmstadt 98, 19% draw, 20% Holstein Kiel — fair odds of 1.64, 5.26 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: SV Darmstadt 98 2.56, Holstein Kiel 1.43.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel
- 7 March 2026SV Darmstadt 98 2–0 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 4 October 2025Holstein Kiel 1–1 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
- 6 January 2024SV Darmstadt 98 1–2 Holstein KielFriendlies Clubs
- 30 April 2023Holstein Kiel 0–3 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
- 21 October 2022SV Darmstadt 98 1–1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 2 April 2022SV Darmstadt 98 3–1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
The two sides
SV Darmstadt 98 carry a model rating of 6.89 against 6.73 for Holstein Kiel. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.56 goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.43 for Holstein Kiel. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SV Darmstadt 98 rate 1.22 in attack and 1.16 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Holstein Kiel rate 0.88 and 1.11.
That points to 76% for over two and a half goals and 70% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%), 1-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SV Darmstadt 98 the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.56 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 against 1.43 for Holstein Kiel. SV Darmstadt 98's attack/defence rating is 1.22/1.16 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.11 for Holstein Kiel.