SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: SV Darmstadt 98 2-2 Holstein Kiel.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% SV Darmstadt 98, 19% draw, 20% Holstein Kiel — fair odds of 1.64, 5.26 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
SV Darmstadt 98 at 61%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Marcel SchuhenG
- 28Christopher LannertD
- 6Patric PfeifferD
- 20Aleksandar VukotićD
- 3Florian KleinhanslD
- 17Kai KlefischM
- 16Hiroki AkiyamaM
- 7Noah WeißhauptM
- 41Lance DuijvestijnM
- 44Yosuke FurukawaM
- 19Fynn LakenmacherF
- 10Nicolas VerkooijenM
- 9Lee Ho-jaeF
- 48Manolo MerxF
- 18Raoul PetrettaD
- 11Ibrahim El KadiriF
- 30Alexander BrunstG
- 49Yannik LührsD
- 22Lars KehlM
- 23Carlo SickingerM
- 1Timon WeinerG
- 32Hiroki SekineD
- 13Ivan NekićD
- 26David ZecD
- 40Leon ParduziD
- 28Jonas MeffertM
- 11Alexander BernhardssonM
- 8Guillermo BalziM
- 15Kasper DavidsenM
- 20Adrián KaprálikM
- 19Phil HarresF
- 10Jonas TherkelsenM
- 17Faride AlidouF
- 6Marko IvezićD
- 27Ikem UgohM
- 41Lio RothenhagenG
- 30Tayar TasdelenM
- 43Till WieseM
- 22Moritz ReimersM
- 44Mark Richter MonserratM
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 9 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel
- 7 March 2026SV Darmstadt 98 2–0 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 4 October 2025Holstein Kiel 1–1 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
- 6 January 2024SV Darmstadt 98 1–2 Holstein KielFriendlies Clubs
- 30 April 2023Holstein Kiel 0–3 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
- 21 October 2022SV Darmstadt 98 1–1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel
SV Darmstadt 98
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Holstein Kiel
GoalsAssists
- P. Harres53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for SV Darmstadt 98 at 61% and given a draw 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: G. Balzi 8' for Holstein Kiel, P. Harres 42' for Holstein Kiel, Lee Ho-Jae 76' for SV Darmstadt 98, A. Vukotic 86' for SV Darmstadt 98. On expected goals it finished 0.71–1.38.