Viking
vs
Sarpsborg 08 FF
The model makes it 42% Viking, 27% draw, 31% Sarpsborg 08 FF — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Viking 1.46, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.22.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Viking
- W3-0away to Start1 August 2026
- D1-1away to Aalesund26 July 2026
- W2-1away to Lillestrom22 July 2026
- W2-1Sandefjord18 July 2026
- L0-1away to Sarpsborg 08 FF12 July 2026
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- D3-3away to Molde2 August 2026
- W1-0Ham-Kam26 July 2026
- D0-0away to Kristiansund BK18 July 2026
- W1-0Viking12 July 2026
- W2-1away to Brann29 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Viking | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 37 | 14 | +23 | 37 |
| 7 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
- 12 July 2026Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–0 VikingEliteserien
- 1 March 2026Viking 2–0 Sarpsborg 08 FFFriendlies Clubs
- 27 September 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 3–3 VikingEliteserien
- 9 July 2025Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–0 VikingNM Cupen
- 4 May 2025Viking 0–0 Sarpsborg 08 FFEliteserien
- 27 October 2024Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–2 VikingEliteserien
Leading scorers
Viking
- P. Christiansen8 goals4 assists
Sarpsborg 08 FF
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Viking carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.59 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Viking L-W-W-D-W; Sarpsborg 08 FF W-W-D-W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Viking and 1.22 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Viking rate 0.66 in attack and 1.26 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sarpsborg 08 FF rate 0.69 and 1.17.
That points to 50% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Viking a 35.4% chance of the title and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Viking the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Viking against 1.22 for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Viking's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.17 for Sarpsborg 08 FF.