Orgryte IS
vs
AIK Stockholm
The model makes it 57% Orgryte IS, 27% draw, 16% AIK Stockholm — fair odds of 1.75, 3.70 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Orgryte IS 1.55, AIK Stockholm 0.70.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Orgryte IS
- W3-0away to AIK Stockholm2 August 2026
- L0-2away to Vasteras SK FK24 July 2026
- D0-0Djurgardens IF20 July 2026
- W4-3BK Hacken11 July 2026
- L0-3away to Kalmar FF5 July 2026
AIK Stockholm
- L0-3Orgryte IS2 August 2026
- D0-0away to BK Hacken27 July 2026
- W2-0Gais18 July 2026
- W2-1away to Mjallby AIF11 July 2026
- W2-1away to IFK Goteborg5 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Orgryte IS | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 33 | -16 | 13 |
| 6 | AIK Stockholm | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Orgryte IS vs AIK Stockholm
- 2 August 2026AIK Stockholm 0–3 Orgryte ISAllsvenskan
- 19 February 2022AIK Stockholm 2–0 Orgryte ISSvenska Cupen
- 1 March 2020Orgryte IS 0–1 AIK StockholmSvenska Cupen
Leading scorers
Orgryte IS
- N. Christoffersson7 goals
AIK Stockholm
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Orgryte IS carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.13 for AIK Stockholm. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Orgryte IS L-W-D-L-W; AIK Stockholm W-W-W-D-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.55 goals for Orgryte IS and 0.70 for AIK Stockholm. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Orgryte IS rate 0.51 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AIK Stockholm rate 0.35 and 1.61.
That points to 39% for over two and a half goals and 40% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (16%), 2-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour AIK Stockholm, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orgryte IS the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Orgryte IS against 0.7 for AIK Stockholm. Orgryte IS's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.35/1.61 for AIK Stockholm.