Mjallby AIF
vs
IF Elfsborg
The model makes it 60% Mjallby AIF, 19% draw, 21% IF Elfsborg — fair odds of 1.67, 5.26 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Mjallby AIF 2.49, IF Elfsborg 1.46.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Mjallby AIF
- L1-2away to Kalmar FF25 July 2026
- D0-0Vasteras SK FK17 July 2026
- L1-2AIK Stockholm11 July 2026
- D4-4away to Sirius3 July 2026
- D1-1away to IFK Goteborg25 May 2026
IF Elfsborg
- W2-1away to Malmo FF26 July 2026
- L1-3Sirius19 July 2026
- L0-1away to Gais12 July 2026
- L1-2Hammarby FF5 July 2026
- D2-2away to Orgryte IS29 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mjallby AIF | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 17 |
| 8 | IF Elfsborg | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 18 | +2 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg
- 21 May 2026IF Elfsborg 1–1 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
- 4 October 2025Mjallby AIF 2–0 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
- 19 June 2025IF Elfsborg 0–1 Mjallby AIFFriendlies Clubs
- 30 March 2025IF Elfsborg 2–2 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
- 18 August 2024Mjallby AIF 1–1 IF ElfsborgAllsvenskan
- 21 July 2024IF Elfsborg 3–1 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mjallby AIF carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.43 for IF Elfsborg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Mjallby AIF D-D-L-D-L; IF Elfsborg D-L-L-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.49 goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.46 for IF Elfsborg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mjallby AIF rate 0.88 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; IF Elfsborg rate 0.65 and 1.50.
That points to 75% for over two and a half goals and 71% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (7%), 3-1 (7%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour IF Elfsborg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mjallby AIF the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Mjallby AIF against 1.46 for IF Elfsborg. Mjallby AIF's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.5 for IF Elfsborg.