Sandefjord
vs
KFUM Oslo
The model makes it 43% Sandefjord, 23% draw, 34% KFUM Oslo — fair odds of 2.33, 4.35 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sandefjord 1.80, KFUM Oslo 1.59.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Sandefjord
- L0-1away to Fredrikstad1 August 2026
- L0-3Bodo/Glimt26 July 2026
- L1-2away to Viking18 July 2026
- D2-2Ham-Kam12 July 2026
- L1-2away to Molde30 May 2026
KFUM Oslo
- W2-1Kristiansund BK2 August 2026
- L2-4Molde26 July 2026
- L1-2away to Lillestrom18 July 2026
- L0-2Bodo/Glimt12 July 2026
- D0-0Tromso29 May 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Sandefjord | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 15 |
| 13 | KFUM Oslo | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Sandefjord vs KFUM Oslo
- 7 April 2026KFUM Oslo 1–2 SandefjordEliteserien
- 30 November 2025Sandefjord 2–0 KFUM OsloEliteserien
- 30 March 2025KFUM Oslo 3–1 SandefjordEliteserien
- 15 March 2025Sandefjord 1–0 KFUM OsloFriendlies Clubs
- 27 October 2024Sandefjord 2–1 KFUM OsloEliteserien
- 2 June 2024KFUM Oslo 3–3 SandefjordEliteserien
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sandefjord carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.43 for KFUM Oslo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Sandefjord L-D-L-L-L; KFUM Oslo D-L-L-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Sandefjord and 1.59 for KFUM Oslo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sandefjord rate 0.64 in attack and 1.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; KFUM Oslo rate 0.64 and 1.49.
That points to 66% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sandefjord the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.8 expected goals for Sandefjord against 1.59 for KFUM Oslo. Sandefjord's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.49 for KFUM Oslo.