1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Osnabrück 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: 1. FC Heidenheim 4-3 VfL Osnabrück.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% 1. FC Heidenheim, 20% draw, 28% VfL Osnabrück — fair odds of 1.92, 5.00 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
1. FC Heidenheim at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Osnabrück
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Frank FellerG
- 22Oualid MhamdiD
- 6Patrick MainkaD
- 4Tim SierslebenD
- 19Jonas FöhrenbachD
- 24Marcel CostlyM
- 21Adrian BeckM
- 3Jan SchöppnerM
- 17Mathias HonsakM
- 11Budu ZivzivadzeF
- 18Marvin PieringerF
- 2Marnon BuschD
- 10Christian ContehF
- 20Luca KerberM
- 8Paul HennrichM
- 14Maximilian BreunigF
- 33Thomas DähneG
- 5Benedikt GimberD
- 41Marko ZrilićM
- 16Julian NiehuesM
- 32Jonas KrumreyG
- 27Robin FabinskiD
- 24Jannik MüllerD
- 25Niklas WiemannD
- 28Konrad FaberM
- 26Fridolin WagnerM
- 15Bjarke JacobsenM
- 31Patrick KammerbauerM
- 29David KopaczF
- 10Ismail BadjieF
- 11Robin MeißnerF
- 23Tony LesueurF
- 6Bryan HenningM
- 8Leonhard MünstM
- 22Bernd RiesselmannF
- 19Leon OpitzM
- 1Niklas SauterG
- 4Joel Abu HannaD
- 20Theo JanottaD
- 17Luca RaimundF
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 16 |
| 14 | VfL Osnabrück | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Osnabrück
- 20 February 2021VfL Osnabrück 1–2 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
- 25 October 2020FC Heidenheim 1–1 VfL Osnabrück2. Bundesliga
- 22 December 2019FC Heidenheim 3–1 VfL Osnabrück2. Bundesliga
- 27 July 2019VfL Osnabrück 1–3 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
- 3 May 2014VfL Osnabrück 1–0 FC Heidenheim3. Liga
Leading scorers: 1. FC Heidenheim and VfL Osnabrück
1. FC Heidenheim
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
VfL Osnabrück
GoalsAssists
- R. Meißner41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
1. FC Heidenheim beat VfL Osnabrück 4–3. The model had made a win for 1. FC Heidenheim its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: B. Zivzivadze 10' for 1. FC Heidenheim, N. Wiemann 23' for VfL Osnabrück, M. Costly 29' for 1. FC Heidenheim, D. Kopacz 34' for VfL Osnabrück, J. Schoppner 45+2' for 1. FC Heidenheim, M. Pieringer 89' for 1. FC Heidenheim, R. Meissner (penalty) 90+2' for VfL Osnabrück. On expected goals it finished 2.59–1.93.