1. FC Heidenheim
vs
VfL Osnabrück
The model makes it 52% 1. FC Heidenheim, 20% draw, 28% VfL Osnabrück — fair odds of 1.92, 5.00 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.43, VfL Osnabrück 1.79.
Both teams to score: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: 1. FC Heidenheim vs VfL Osnabrück
- 20 February 2021VfL Osnabruck 1–2 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
- 25 October 2020FC Heidenheim 1–1 VfL Osnabruck2. Bundesliga
- 22 December 2019FC Heidenheim 3–1 VfL Osnabruck2. Bundesliga
- 27 July 2019VfL Osnabruck 1–3 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
- 3 May 2014VfL Osnabruck 1–0 FC Heidenheim3. Liga
- 30 November 2013FC Heidenheim 2–0 VfL Osnabruck3. Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
1. FC Heidenheim carry a model rating of 6.92 against 6.92 for VfL Osnabrück. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.43 goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.79 for VfL Osnabrück. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1. FC Heidenheim rate 1.16 in attack and 1.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VfL Osnabrück rate 1.25 and 1.11.
That points to 79% for over two and a half goals and 76% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 207 correct results out of 443 settled predictions (47%), with 42 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1. FC Heidenheim the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.43 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim against 1.79 for VfL Osnabrück. 1. FC Heidenheim's attack/defence rating is 1.16/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.25/1.11 for VfL Osnabrück.