Regular Season - 11 · 21 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Lille vs Lyon Ligue 1 prediction

Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille

Our model says: Lille 1–0 Lyon

The model makes it 47% Lille, 30% draw, 23% Lyon — fair odds of 2.13, 3.33 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).

Expected goals: Lille 1.41, Lyon 0.83.

Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Edge to Lille: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published 7 November 2026 · updated 12 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Lille's rating is built from 44 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Lyon's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 705 matches.

Key facts

Lille are 2nd on 21 points from 10 games; Lyon are 5th on 17 points from 10 games — Ligue 1.
Lille are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Rennes.
Lyon have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Stade Brestois 29.
Last 6 meetings: Lyon 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 February 2026, ended Lyon 1–0 Lille.

More Ligue 1 (France) predictions

All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Lille vs Lyon

43%

Both teams to score

39%

Over 2.5 goals

61%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Lille win Draw Lyon win

1–014%
1–113%
0–011%
2–011%
2–19%
0–18%
1–25%

Scores read Lille first; the other scorelines share the remaining 29%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Lille at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Lille vs Lyon

Lille

Ligue 1

W2-1away to Rennes8 November 2026
W1-0Lens30 October 2026
D1-1away to Monaco25 October 2026
D1-1Stade Brestois 2917 October 2026
W1-0Le Havre10 October 2026

Lyon

Ligue 1

L0-2away to Stade Brestois 298 November 2026
W2-0Angers1 November 2026
L0-2away to Paris Saint Germain26 October 2026
W2-1Nice18 October 2026
L1-2away to Lens9 October 2026

What these results say

Lille went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
Lille scored in every one of these 5 matches.
4 of these 5 matches for Lille had two goals or fewer.
Lyon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
2	Lille	10	6	3	1	14	7	+7	21
5	Lyon	10	5	2	3	15	9	+6	17

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Lille

Chance to finish in the top three · 57% today

Win 62%

Draw 54%

Defeat 47%

Lyon

Chance to finish in the top three · 13% today

Win 19%

Draw 13%

Defeat 10%

From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Lille vs Lyon

1 February 2026Lyon 1–0 LilleLigue 1
11 January 2026Lille 1–2 LyonCoupe de France
28 September 2025Lille 0–1 LyonLigue 1
5 April 2025Lyon 2–1 LilleLigue 1
1 November 2024Lille 1–1 LyonLigue 1
6 May 2024Lille 3–4 LyonLigue 1

The full Lille vs Lyon record →

Leading scorers: Lille and Lyon

Lille

No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Lyon

GoalsAssists

E. Nuamah41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lille a 9.5% chance of the title and Lyon 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Lille v Lyon has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 44% / 31% / 25% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 47% / 30% / 23%: the biggest move is Lille's chance of winning, up 3 points.

Lille win47%▲ +3
Draw30%▼ −1
Lyon win23%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Lille Lyon

0.98 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.94

0.64 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.85

1.41 Model expected goals (this match) 0.83

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Lille the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Lille against 0.83 for Lyon. Lille's attack/defence rating is 0.98/0.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/0.85 for Lyon.

Lille carry a model rating of 7.09 against 6.91 for Lyon.

How the model reaches 47% for Lille to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Lille to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 4 points, Lille's ratings add 3 points and Lyon's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 47%.

Two average sides, neutral ground37%
Home advantage43%+6
Both sides at this match's level39%−4
Lille's ratings42%+3
Lyon's ratings47%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

LilleModelLyon

Over 1.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

66%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

30%

3 of 10 games

39%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

10%

1 of 10 games

19%

model, this match

20%

2 of 10 games

Both teams score

50%

5 of 10 games

43%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

LilleLyon

10Matches10

6W 3D 1LRecord5W 2D 3L

14 1.4 per gameGoals scored15 1.5 per game

7 0.7 per gameGoals conceded9 0.9 per game

5 of 10Clean sheets4 of 10

0 of 10Failed to score3 of 10

1 of 1Penalties scored–

17 1.7 per gameYellow cards13 1.3 per game

1Red cards1

4-2-3-1 7×Usual shape4-3-3 5×

Lille at home · Lyon away

5Played5

3W 2D 0LRecord1W 1D 3L

7–3Goals for – against3–6

3 of 5Clean sheets2 of 5

League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

LilleLyon

Lille are 2nd after 10 Ligue 1 matches (between 1st and 4th so far); Lyon are 5th after 10 (between 1st and 5th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligue 1 matches this season: Lille 10, Lyon 10.

Lille scored 251034

Lyon conceded 022022

Lille score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Lyon have let in 2 there.

Lyon scored 124215

Lille conceded 101020

Lyon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Lille have let in 0 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Lille

vs Bayern München25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 19%
at Le Mans28 Nov · Ligue 1win 53%
vs Auxerre5 Dec · Ligue 1win 64%
at VfB Stuttgart9 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 34%
at Lorient13 Dec · Ligue 1win 41%

Lyon

vs Lillestrom26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 56%
vs Monaco29 Nov · Ligue 1win 39%
at Estac Troyes6 Dec · Ligue 1win 47%
vs Union St. Gilloise10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 29%
vs Marseille13 Dec · Ligue 1win 38%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.