Rangers
vs
Aberdeen
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Rangers 2–0 Aberdeen
The model makes it 63% Rangers, 22% draw, 15% Aberdeen — fair odds of 1.59, 4.55 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Rangers 2.28, Aberdeen 0.87.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Rangers are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Rangers are 2nd on 19 points from 8 games; Aberdeen are 7th on 11 points from 9 games — Premiership.
- Rangers are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Kilmarnock.
- Aberdeen have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to St Mirren.
- Last 6 meetings: Rangers 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 August 2026, ended Aberdeen 0–1 Rangers.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rangers vs Aberdeen
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rangers at 63% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Rangers vs Aberdeen
Rangers
- W3-1Kilmarnock10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Celtic20 September 2026
- W1-0St Mirren9 September 2026
- W1-0Motherwell5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Falkirk2 September 2026
Aberdeen
- W3-1St Mirren17 October 2026
- L0-1St Johnstone11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Hibernian19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Motherwell15 September 2026
- D0-0Kilmarnock5 September 2026
What these results say
- Rangers won every one of these 5 matches.
- Rangers scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rangers | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 19 |
| 7 | Aberdeen | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Rangers
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 27% today
Aberdeen
Chance to finish in the top four · 13% today
From our Premiership season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Rangers vs Aberdeen
- 30 August 2026Aberdeen 0–1 RangersPremiership
- 21 March 2026Rangers 4–1 AberdeenPremiership
- 11 January 2026Aberdeen 0–2 RangersPremiership
- 6 January 2026Rangers 2–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 11 May 2025Rangers 4–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 13 April 2025Aberdeen 2–2 RangersPremiership
Leading scorers: Rangers and Aberdeen
Rangers
GoalsAssists
- R. Naderi41
- L. Shankland30
Aberdeen
GoalsAssists
- K. Nisbet32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rangers carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.36 for Aberdeen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.28 goals for Rangers and 0.87 for Aberdeen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rangers rate 0.90 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aberdeen rate 0.56 and 1.51.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rangers a 26.8% chance of the title and Aberdeen 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rangers the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Rangers against 0.87 for Aberdeen. Rangers's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.51 for Aberdeen.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rangers at home · Aberdeen away
League matches only, Premiership, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Rangers 8, Aberdeen 9.
Aberdeen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Rangers have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Rangers
- vs Aberdeen31 Oct · League Cupwin 63%
- at St Mirren7 Nov · Premiershipwin 59%
- at Motherwell21 Nov · Premiershipwin 47%
Aberdeen
- at Rangers31 Oct · League Cupwin 15%
- vs Hibernian7 Nov · Premiershipwin 41%
- at Kilmarnock21 Nov · Premiershipwin 34%
- vs Dundee28 Nov · Premiershipwin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.