Rangers
vs
St Johnstone
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Rangers 2–0 St Johnstone
The model makes it 61% Rangers, 22% draw, 17% St Johnstone — fair odds of 1.64, 4.55 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Rangers 2.24, St Johnstone 0.95.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Rangers are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Rangers are 2nd on 19 points from 8 games; St Johnstone are 5th on 11 points from 8 games — Premiership.
- Rangers are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Kilmarnock.
- St Johnstone have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Aberdeen.
- Last 6 meetings: Rangers 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 12 January 2025, ended Rangers 3–1 St Johnstone.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rangers vs St Johnstone
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rangers at 61% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rangers vs St Johnstone
Rangers
- W3-1Kilmarnock10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Celtic20 September 2026
- W1-0St Mirren9 September 2026
- W1-0Motherwell5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Falkirk2 September 2026
St Johnstone
- W1-0away to Aberdeen11 October 2026
- D1-1Falkirk19 September 2026
- L0-1Celtic9 September 2026
- W2-1Hibernian6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Dundee2 September 2026
What these results say
- Rangers won every one of these 5 matches.
- Rangers scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- St Johnstone scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- St Johnstone conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for St Johnstone had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rangers | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 19 |
| 5 | St Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Rangers
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 22% today
St Johnstone
Chance to finish in the top four
From our Premiership season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Rangers vs St Johnstone
- 12 January 2025Rangers 3–1 St JohnstonePremiership
- 1 December 2024St Johnstone 0–1 RangersPremiership
- 6 October 2024Rangers 2–0 St JohnstonePremiership
- 17 August 2024Rangers 2–0 St JohnstoneLeague Cup
- 18 February 2024St Johnstone 0–3 RangersPremiership
- 20 December 2023Rangers 2–0 St JohnstonePremiership
Leading scorers: Rangers and St Johnstone
Rangers
GoalsAssists
- R. Naderi41
- L. Shankland30
St Johnstone
GoalsAssists
- J. Fowler51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rangers carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.4 for St Johnstone. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.24 goals for Rangers and 0.95 for St Johnstone. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rangers rate 0.91 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; St Johnstone rate 0.60 and 1.47.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rangers a 22.2% chance of the title and St Johnstone 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rangers the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Rangers against 0.95 for St Johnstone. Rangers's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.47 for St Johnstone.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rangers at home · St Johnstone away
League matches only, Premiership, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
RangersSt Johnstone
Rangers are 1st after 8 Premiership matches (between 1st and 9th so far); St Johnstone are 5th after 8 (between 2nd and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Rangers 8, St Johnstone 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Rangers
- at Heart of Midlothian28 Oct · Premiershipwin 33%
- vs Aberdeen31 Oct · Premiershipwin 65%
- at St Mirren7 Nov · Premiershipwin 58%
- at Motherwell21 Nov · Premiershipwin 45%
St Johnstone
- vs Motherwell28 Oct · Premiershipwin 41%
- at Kilmarnock31 Oct · Premiershipwin 39%
- vs Dundee7 Nov · Premiershipwin 43%
- at Falkirk21 Nov · Premiershipwin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.