St Mirren
vs
Kilmarnock
Premiership prediction
Our model says: St Mirren 1–0 Kilmarnock
The model makes it 39% St Mirren, 28% draw, 33% Kilmarnock — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: St Mirren 1.44, Kilmarnock 1.28.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- St Mirren are 8th on 14 points from 13 games; Kilmarnock are bottom on 9 points from 13 games — Premiership.
- St Mirren are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Rangers.
- Kilmarnock are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Celtic.
- Last 6 meetings: Kilmarnock 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 September 2026, ended Kilmarnock 0–1 St Mirren.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: St Mirren vs Kilmarnock
Has the model earned this number?
St Mirren at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into St Mirren vs Kilmarnock
St Mirren
Premiership
- L0-2Rangers7 November 2026
- L0-1away to Motherwell31 October 2026
- D1-1Hibernian28 October 2026
- W2-1Dundee24 October 2026
- L1-3away to Aberdeen17 October 2026
Kilmarnock
Premiership
- L0-1away to Celtic8 November 2026
- D2-2St Johnstone31 October 2026
- L1-3away to Dundee28 October 2026
- L0-3away to Falkirk24 October 2026
- W3-2Motherwell17 October 2026
What these results say
- St Mirren conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- St Mirren failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kilmarnock conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kilmarnock failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Kilmarnock had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | St Mirren | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 14 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
St Mirren
Chance to finish in the bottom three
Kilmarnock
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 78% today
From our Premiership season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: St Mirren vs Kilmarnock
- 2 September 2026Kilmarnock 0–1 St MirrenPremiership
- 9 May 2026St Mirren 0–3 KilmarnockPremiership
- 11 February 2026Kilmarnock 4–3 St MirrenPremiership
- 27 December 2025St Mirren 0–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 4 October 2025Kilmarnock 2–0 St MirrenPremiership
- 19 September 2025Kilmarnock 2–2 St MirrenLeague Cup
Leading scorers: St Mirren and Kilmarnock
St Mirren
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Kilmarnock
GoalsAssists
- G. Kiltie30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St Mirren the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for St Mirren against 1.28 for Kilmarnock. St Mirren's attack/defence rating is 0.43/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.98 for Kilmarnock.
How the model reaches 39% for St Mirren to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for St Mirren to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, St Mirren's ratings take away 3 points and Kilmarnock's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- St Mirren's ratings40%−3
- Kilmarnock's ratings39%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
St Mirren at home · Kilmarnock away
League matches only, Premiership, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
St MirrenKilmarnock
St Mirren are 8th after 13 Premiership matches (between 1st and 8th so far); Kilmarnock are 12th after 13 (between 10th and 12th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: St Mirren 13, Kilmarnock 13.
St Mirren score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Kilmarnock have let in 8 there.
Kilmarnock score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); St Mirren have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
St Mirren
- at St Johnstone2 Dec · Premiershipwin 22%
- vs Heart of Midlothian5 Dec · Premiershipwin 25%
- at Dundee United12 Dec · Premiershipwin 21%
- vs Falkirk19 Dec · Premiershipwin 26%
Kilmarnock
- vs Hibernian2 Dec · Premiershipwin 33%
- at Motherwell5 Dec · Premiershipwin 22%
- vs Dundee12 Dec · Premiershipwin 35%
- at Dundee United19 Dec · Premiershipwin 23%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.