Motherwell
vs
Hibernian
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Motherwell 1–0 Hibernian
The model makes it 40% Motherwell, 28% draw, 32% Hibernian — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Motherwell 1.47, Hibernian 1.24.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Motherwell's rating is built from 51 Scottish Premiership matches and Hibernian's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 543 matches.
Key facts
- Motherwell are 9th on 13 points from 13 games; Hibernian are 10th on 11 points from 12 games — Premiership.
- Motherwell are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Dundee United.
- Hibernian have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-0 win away to Aberdeen.
- Last 6 meetings: Motherwell 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 August 2026, ended Hibernian 1–2 Motherwell.
More Scottish Premiership predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Motherwell vs Hibernian
Has the model earned this number?
Motherwell at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Motherwell vs Hibernian
Motherwell
Premiership
- D1-1away to Dundee United7 November 2026
- W1-0St Mirren31 October 2026
- D2-2away to St Johnstone28 October 2026
- L0-2Heart of Midlothian25 October 2026
- L2-3away to Kilmarnock17 October 2026
Hibernian
Premiership
- W4-0away to Aberdeen7 November 2026
- D1-1away to St Mirren28 October 2026
- L1-2Celtic25 October 2026
- L1-2Falkirk17 October 2026
- L0-1away to Dundee United10 October 2026
What these results say
- Motherwell failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Motherwell scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Motherwell conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hibernian failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hibernian scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hibernian conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Motherwell | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 13 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Motherwell
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 30% today
Hibernian
Chance to finish in the top six · 36% today
From our Premiership season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Motherwell vs Hibernian
- 2 August 2026Hibernian 1–2 MotherwellPremiership
- 16 May 2026Hibernian 0–1 MotherwellPremiership
- 21 March 2026Motherwell 0–0 HibernianPremiership
- 10 January 2026Hibernian 1–1 MotherwellPremiership
- 25 November 2025Motherwell 2–0 HibernianPremiership
- 11 January 2025Hibernian 3–1 MotherwellPremiership
Leading scorers: Motherwell and Hibernian
Motherwell
GoalsAssists
- A. Lowry31
Hibernian
GoalsAssists
- C. Wright31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Motherwell the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Motherwell against 1.24 for Hibernian. Motherwell's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.42 for Hibernian.
How the model reaches 40% for Motherwell to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Motherwell to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Motherwell's ratings take away 1 point and Hibernian's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- Motherwell's ratings41%−1
- Hibernian's ratings40%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Motherwell at home · Hibernian away
League matches only, Premiership, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
MotherwellHibernian
Motherwell are 9th after 13 Premiership matches (between 3rd and 10th so far); Hibernian are 10th after 12 (between 5th and 12th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Motherwell 13, Hibernian 12.
Hibernian score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Motherwell have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Motherwell
- at Falkirk2 Dec · Premiershipwin 25%
- vs Kilmarnock5 Dec · Premiershipwin 54%
- at Heart of Midlothian13 Dec · Premiershipwin 24%
- vs Dundee19 Dec · Premiershipwin 43%
Hibernian
- at Kilmarnock2 Dec · Premiershipwin 41%
- vs Rangers7 Dec · Premiershipwin 28%
- at Celtic13 Dec · Premiershipwin 16%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.