Leeds
vs
Coventry
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Leeds 1–0 Coventry
The model makes it 50% Leeds, 27% draw, 23% Coventry — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Leeds 1.72, Coventry 1.00.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.
Edge to Leeds: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Leeds's rating is built from 48 Premier League matches and Coventry's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 860 matches.
Key facts
- Leeds are 9th on 14 points from 10 games; Coventry are 17th on 9 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Leeds have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Tottenham.
- Coventry have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Everton.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 5 February 2025, ended Coventry 0–2 Leeds.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Leeds vs Coventry
Has the model earned this number?
Leeds at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Leeds vs Coventry
Leeds
Premier League
- W1-0Tottenham7 November 2026
- L0-2away to Bournemouth31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Sunderland25 October 2026
- D1-1Manchester United18 October 2026
- L1-2away to Arsenal10 October 2026
Coventry
Premier League
- L1-3away to Everton6 November 2026
- W3-1Sunderland31 October 2026
- L0-1Fulham24 October 2026
- L1-3away to Tottenham19 October 2026
- W4-1Newcastle12 October 2026
What these results say
- Leeds failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Leeds had two goals or fewer.
- Coventry conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Coventry scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Coventry had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 17 | Coventry | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Leeds
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 4% today
Coventry
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 51% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Leeds vs Coventry
- 5 February 2025Coventry 0–2 LeedsChampionship
- 28 September 2024Leeds 3–0 CoventryChampionship
- 6 April 2024Coventry 2–1 LeedsChampionship
- 16 December 2023Leeds 1–1 CoventryChampionship
- 14 February 2012Coventry 2–1 LeedsChampionship
- 18 October 2011Leeds 1–1 CoventryChampionship
Leading scorers: Leeds and Coventry
Leeds
GoalsAssists
- D. Calvert-Lewin31
Coventry
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Leeds the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Leeds against 1.00 for Coventry. Leeds's attack/defence rating is 0.89/0.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.21 for Coventry.
How the model reaches 50% for Leeds to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Leeds to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Leeds's ratings add 4 points and Coventry's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage41%+4
- Both sides at this match's level40%−1
- Leeds's ratings44%+4
- Coventry's ratings50%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Leeds at home · Coventry away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
LeedsCoventry
Leeds are 9th after 10 Premier League matches (between 3rd and 8th so far); Coventry are 17th after 10 (between 14th and 20th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Leeds 10, Coventry 10.
Coventry score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Leeds have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Leeds
- at Manchester City2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 20%
- vs Ipswich5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 47%
- at Liverpool12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 23%
- vs Fulham19 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 42%
Coventry
- vs Ipswich1 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- at Manchester United5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 20%
- vs Aston Villa13 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 25%
- at Bournemouth19 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 20%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.